Denver Broncos 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Denver Broncos in 2022.

The big off-season story for the Broncos was the acquisition of quarterback Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks. The Broncos’ futures odds immediately dropped, with talking heads suddenly anointed Denver as a Super Bowl contender, and Wilson was treated as the Second Coming, or at least the best addition since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a Super Bowl title in 2016.

Denver Broncos Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Denver Broncos

• 2021 Record: 7-10, 4th in the AFC West (missed playoffs) 
• 2021 ATS: 8-8
• Key off-season losses: Drew Lock QB, Teddy Bridgewater QB, Noah Fant TE, Shelby Harris DE
• Key off-season addition: Russell Wilson QB, D.J. Jones DT, Randy Gregory OLB

Denver Broncos 2022 Win Total - 10

NFL.com columnist Jeffri Chadiha called the Wilson acquisition the second-most impactful trade of the off-season, stating that “Wilson instantly upgrades Denver to scary-good.” The Broncos also made key defensive improvements by signing Cowboys edge rusher Randy Gregory and 49ers defensive tackle D.J. Jones, while also drafting Oklahoma outside linebacker Nik Bonitto.

QBs with the best career passer rating

Patrick Mahomes - 105.8
Aaron Rodgers - 104.5
Deshaun Watson - 104.5
Russell Wilson - 101.8
Drew Brees - 98.7
Dak Prescott - 98.7
Kirk Cousins - 98.6
Tom Brady - 97.6
Tony Romo - 97.1
Steve Young - 96.8

— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) June 5, 2022

On the flip side, the Broncos gave up Noah Fant, who led Denver with 68 receptions last year, in the trade for Wilson.

The Broncos have a new-but-inexperienced coaching staff after replacing head coach Vic Fangio with Nathaniel Hackett, the former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator. This will be Hackett’s first head coaching job, and he is by no means the only person on the Broncos’ coaching staff who is a little light on experience.

Offensive coordinator Justin Outten, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, and special teams coordinator Dwayne Stukes are all first-timers in their respective positions.

While Wilson is a massive improvement over the two-headed quarterback monster of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, it’s important to remember that Denver finished with only seven wins last season.

Even though the Broncos will have a soft start to the season against Wilson’s former team, the Seahawks, and the lowly Houston Texans, the sledding gets tougher from there. At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself if you really think that Wilson is worth an additional four wins this year. We're leaning towards no.

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Broncos averaged 9.31 wins per year. Under 10 wins is the right call for Denver. Wilson is a great quarterback, but the Broncos have more holes than people think. Wilson has also shown some signs of slowing down in recent years. 

Denver Broncos X-Factor - Jerry Jeudy, WR

The Broncos had high hopes for Jerry Jeudy when they picked him in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft as a high-flying wide receiver from Alabama. But an ankle injury derailed Jeudy’s season last year, forcing him to miss six games and ending the season without a touchdown. Jeudy also has been distracted by a domestic violence case this off-season.

A judge dismissed all charges against Jeudy, but it will be important for him to spend more time in the weight room than the courtroom this season. If Jeudy can stay healthy and avoid more off-field problems, he could be a prime beneficiary of the Wilson trade and have a breakout season.

Denver Broncos Super Bowl 57 Chances

The Broncos haven’t made the playoffs in the past six years and have had five straight losing seasons. Denver also is in the fiercely competitive AFC West, with oddsmakers favoring the Kansas City Chiefs and essentially placing the Broncos in a dead heat with the Los Angeles Chargers to win the division.

Add a brand-new and inexperienced coaching staff and an overhyped new quarterback to the mix and you have a recipe for uncertainty. The Broncos should see significant improvements, but this season might not be what people expect.

DimersBOT: Our predictive analytics model isn't high on the Broncos this year, so this probably isn't a bet worth making. But it's understandable if you want to throw a little something on Denver if you believe Wilson is still a Top 5 quarterback. 

Denver Broncos 2022 Schedule 

• September 11, 2022 - at Seattle Seahawks
• September 18, 2022 - Houston Texans
• September 25, 2022 - San Francisco 49ers
• October 2, 2022 - at Las Vegas Raiders
• October 6, 2022 - Indianapolis Colts
• October 17, 2022 - at Los Angeles Chargers
• October 23, 2022 - New York Jets
• October 30, 2022 - at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
• November 13, 2022 - at Tennessee Titans
• November 20, 2022 - Las Vegas Raiders
• November 27, 2022 - at Carolina Panthers
• December 4, 2022 - at Baltimore Ravens
• December 11, 2022 - Kansas City Chiefs
• December 18, 2022 - Arizona Cardinals
• December 25, 2022 - at Los Angeles Rams
• January 1, 2023 - at Kansas City Chiefs
• January 8, 2023 - Los Angeles Chargers