Commanders vs. Bears Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Thursday Night Football on October 13, 2022

Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 2:52PM | First published: Oct 10, 2022, 9:19PM

Commanders vs. Bears Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Thursday Night Football on October 13, 2022

The Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears can both use a big win this week, which is why their matchup at 8:15PM ET on Thursday, October 13 is a huge one for both teams. This a Thursday Night Football game at Soldier Field that definitely won't generate a lot of buzz, but it could be a little more exciting than expected.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Commanders vs. Bears betting preview.

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Commanders vs. Bears Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

55% chance the Commanders win on the money line
No edge on either team to cover the spread
51% chance Bears vs. Commanders goes Over 38 points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Commanders vs. Bears data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Commanders vs. Bears Odds and Betting Lines

Why The Commanders Will Cover The Spread

Both of these teams struggle on offense, but the Bears are a bit harder to trust than the Commanders there. Justin Fields has been completely babied throughout his career, which just shows you that Chicago doesn't have much trust in him. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz has looked decent for Washington thus far, and he is definitely the better quarterback in this matchup. That goes a long way when trying to determine the winner.

The Commanders also happen to be 10-8 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under head coach Ron Rivera. This team has been solid in games that are expected to be close, and it wouldn't be too surprising if that record improved to 11-8. Washington has more talent on both sides of the ball.

MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities

Why The Bears Will Cover The Spread

The Commanders are 5-14 ATS in the first half of the season under Rivera. And while Washington is probably the more talented team in this matchup, it's Chicago that has a much better defense this year. And for as awful as the Bears offense has looked throughout the season, the team isn't averaging less points per game than the Commanders. Perhaps home-field advantage in a night game will make Chicago's offense look better than Washington's.

Bears head coach Matt Eberflus also comes from Indianapolis, where he was the defensive coordinator on a Colts team in which Wentz was quarterback. He should be very familiar with the way Wentz plays, and he'll look to attack his weaknesses here — and Wentz certainly has a lot of those.

It's also worth noting that the Commanders are 2-8-1 ATS when coming off a home loss under Rivera.

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Why The Over Will Hit

Last week, we saw Wentz hit Dyami Brown for a pair of touchdowns. Those explosive plays can mean a lot when a game has a total this low, as it won't take many successful scoring drives for this Over to hit.

Given how the Commanders defense has struggled in spurts, it also wouldn't be too surprising if the Bears were able to find some ways to move the ball down the field. Fields looked as sharp as he has ever looked in the NFL last week.

Why The Under Will Hit

Neither one of these offenses has been all that explosive this season, and both defenses are talented — with Chicago's actually surprisingly being one of the better ones in the league. With this being a short week, it's not easy for either team to implement a winning offensive game plan. That takes an extra couple of days to really sink in, which is why these game can get ugly in the second half.

Since Rivera got to Washington, the Under is also 7-3 in the 10 games his squad has played against opponents with winning percentages of 25% to 40%.

Commanders vs. Bears Prediction

Lean: Bears -1

The Bears are coming off of a solid performance against the Vikings, but they were unable to get the job done late. We expect Chicago to bounce back and figure out a way to earn a victory here.