College Football Playoff Predictions, Odds, Best Picks: Predicting Every First Round Matchup

The 2024-25 College Football playoff has arrived and it looks a little bit different this year.

For the first time ever, college football will have a true postseason, featuring 12 teams competing week-to-week in an elimination-style bracket as they compete for the National Championship.

With the first round commencing on Friday, December 20th, we've consulted our Dimers college football model to predict each of the four games in Round 1.

RELATED: Dimers' Best Bets to Win the College Football Playoff

Dimers' Round 1 Predictions

#10 Indiana vs. #7 Notre Dame

Notre Dame and Indiana face off on Friday, December 20, 2024, at 8:00 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame enters the game as a 7-point favorite, with the total points line set at 52. The moneyline odds have Notre Dame at -278 (implied win probability of 73.5%) and Indiana at +230 (implied win probability of 30.3%). However, Dimers’ advanced analytics suggest slightly different win probabilities, giving Notre Dame a 66% chance and Indiana 34%, with a predicted final score of 28-23 in favor of Notre Dame.

Per Dimers' win probabilities, the fair moneyline odds would be closer to -194 for Notre Dame and +194 for Indiana, indicating potential value if market odds adjust. This promises an exciting clash, with the Hoosiers looking to challenge Notre Dame's favored status in what could be a closer game than the spread suggests, given Indiana' 57% probability to cover the spread.

#11 SMU vs. #6 Penn State

Southern Methodist takes on Penn State in an intriguing matchup on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at 12:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium. Penn State is an 8.5-point favorite with a total points line of 54 and a 56% probability to go under. The current moneyline odds list Penn State at -310 (implied win probability of 75.6%) and Southern Methodist at +260 (implied win probability of 27.8%). Dimers’ simulations, however, give Penn State a 71% chance to win and Southern Methodist a 29% chance, with a projected final score of 30-22 in favor of the Nittany Lions.

Our fair moneyline odds would be approximately -245 for Penn State and +245 for Southern Methodist, highlighting potential value for bettors. With Penn State expected to control the game and a 50/50 probability of either team covering the spread, SMU will need a strong performance to potentially pull off an upset in this midday showdown.

RELATED: Predictions for Every College Football Bowl Game

#12 Clemson vs. #5 Texas

Clemson and Texas square off on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at 4:00 PM ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas enters as a heavy favorite, with an 11.5-point spread and a moneyline of -450 (implied win probability of 81.8%), while Clemson sits at +350 (implied win probability of 22.2%). The total points line is set at 52, with a 55% likelihood the game stays under. According to Dimers’ simulations, Texas has a 76% chance of winning, compared to Clemson’s 24%, slightly adjusting the implied probabilities.

Based on Dimers’ win probabilities, fair moneyline odds would be closer to -317 for Texas and +317 for Clemson. Texas is expected to dominate, but Clemson could provide value against the spread if they manage to challenge the Longhorns’ defense. This matchup is projected to favor Texas in a game likely to stay under the total points line.

#9 Tennessee vs. #8 Ohio State

The final Round 1 matchup will see Tennessee and Ohio State clash under the lights at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at 8:00 PM ET. Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite, with a moneyline of -275 (implied win probability of 73.3%), while Tennessee is listed at +240 (implied win probability of 29.4%). The total is set at 46, signaling expectations for a lower-scoring game, though our model does project 53% to the over. Dimers' advanced simulations give Ohio State a 70% chance to win, compared to Tennessee's 30%, projecting a final score of 28-20 in favor of the Buckeyes.

Fair moneyline odds based on these probabilities would align closer to -233 for Ohio State and +233 for Tennessee, slightly favoring Tennessee’s current value. Ohio State's balanced attack positions them as the stronger team, but Tennessee’s competitive edge could make this matchup tighter than the odds suggest, especially with a modest spread and low-scoring outlook.

RELATED: Dimers' Best Bets to Win the College Football Playoff

Bet on the College Football Playoff with Dimers Pro

When betting on the College Football Playoff this winter, Dimers Pro is your go-to resource. Combining advanced analytics with cutting-edge predictive models, Dimers Pro offers everything you need to elevate your game.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, you’ll find invaluable data, strategies, and opportunities in our Best College Football Bets, Player Props and more.

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CFB Resources for Bowl Season

• College Football Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Bowl Game and Playoff Matchup
• College Football Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• College Football Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NCAA Championship Odds: Who will win it all this year?
• CFB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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