College Football Betting: Three Things To Know Heading Into Week 11 of the 2022 Season

Did you hear that explosion? And feel those tremors rippling through the ground? That, my dear friends, is the result of the college football landscape exploding like a fireworks factory — quite a show, but it’s also going to cause some serious headaches and take a bit of time to sort through the debris. Luckily, you have me to do that heavy lifting.

In a lot of ways, Week 10 really just confirmed the things we already knew (or at least what people with half of a brain knew, which does not include members of the CFP Committee):

1. Georgia is clearly the best team in the country
2. Clemson benefitted from an easy schedule and were never all that good
3. Alabama was getting by on their name but that wasn't enough to overcome their obvious flaws
4. Ohio State is not a top-tier football team, particularly on offense.

So, where does that leave us? Well, it’s sort of hard to say, even for me. UGA is pretty much locked in for both an SEC Championship and CFP Playoff appearance barring an outlandish turn, and the Big Ten probably pushes in either Ohio State or Michigan unless Illinois turns out to be capable of more than we expect.

After that, the race seems wide open, and we may have just welcomed a few more teams back into the playoff picture. Let’s go ahead and break it down.

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1. Can TCU survive?

The biggest lingering question in the battle for a playoff birth is undoubtedly TCU. If they manage to win their next three conference matchups and the Big 12 Title game then they will be a lock for the CFP, but it’s hard to figure out just how good this team really is. Their out-of-conference schedule was more or less a waste of time, and wins over teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State are hard to value.

That said, you have to give them credit for handling their business and a win at Texas this week, which is likely their last big test, would do a lot for their legitimacy. Having watched this team play a lot of football at this point, my gut tells me they aren’t quite capable, but it's not a hill I’d die on. Keep an eye on the Horned Frogs this weekend.

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2. SEC vs. Pac-12

By pretty much every metric and eye test, the SEC should be a two-bid league. The football is just clearly a higher quality than anywhere else in the country and there are few people who would argue with that. But, even if that’s true, they don't have a shot in hell at two teams getting tapped if this conference keeps cannibalizing itself. LSU just ended the Tide’s hopes, and Tennessee is going to have a damn tough time without a conference title to play for, as their win over Alabama looks less and less impressive.

So why is the Pac-12 involved? Well, to start, self sabotage is usually their expertise, and it must be nice to watch someone else take part in the pain. On top of that, I think the Pac-12 title winner is the most likely swap for a second SEC team.

If Oregon or USC win out then both have a fair argument for earning a bid, though Oregon’s shellacking at the hands of UGA doesn't help them much. As a fan of football, I think two SEC teams should be the minimum if we really want a playoff with the highest quality, but I’m not too naive to think that committee has other concerns.

3. Time To Put On A Show

As far as “big games,” this weekend is pretty much barren. Sure, TCU at Texas has some big implications and Ole Miss-Alabama could technically make a difference, but overall the slate is pretty dry unless you have very strong feelings about AAC football and the matchup between UCF and Tulane (in which case, I have further questions).

But, while these types of weekends feel more boring early in the season, we’re getting down to the final impressions for each team to make their case and how they, not just winning, says a lot about a team (looking at you Ohio State, you are garbage). Programs like Tennessee, the aforementioned Buckeyes, Michigan, Oregon, and even Georgia will want to show that they’re every bit as good as they say.

How do you do that with a 30-point line? Beat the living snot out of somebody and cover. Coaches want to say that they don't think about that stuff, but over-performing is important and I guarantee you’ll see some teams try to put up ugly numbers this week. Think about that as an angle when setting out your slate of picks.