College Football Betting: Three Things To Know Heading Into Week 1 of the 2022 Season

Week 0 was pretty much what we expected - a complete waste of time. In fact, that statement is especially true for me as I managed to push my only bet of the week with Illinois-Wyoming finishing at 44 points right on the dot. But a day spent gambling and watching football is never a waste, and we’ve had our opening act before the real show.

While I don’t think any of the outcomes from last weekend are particularly relevant, I want to take a moment to give a shoutout to Scott Frost and his impending severance check. Things haven't been good in Nebraska for a while (arguably ever, to be honest; Nebraska is a terrible place), but boy was that loss a low point. 17-point favorites to Northwesters, with a fan base who traveled across an ocean to watch you play (though I’ll say again, I’m SHOCKED Nebraska fans have the internet capability to make those travel arrangements), and you blow a double digit second half lead. And that onside kick call? There’s a line between aggressive and stupid, and Frost passed that so far he’d need binoculars to find it. But hey, at least it brought some entertainment value to an otherwise dull day of football. With that, here are 3 things you should know about Week 1 of College Football.

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1. Playoff chances could be decided Week 1

It’s a bit dramatic to say that the spots in this year’s CFB playoff could hinge on a team’s first game of the year, but it’s probably true. Not only do we have two massive games to kickoff the season in UGA/Oregon and OSU/Notre Dame that will make for incredible viewing, but these are really matchups that almost none of these teams can afford to lose.

OSU might be able to handle a loss to ND if they take down the Big 10 (or Big 25 or whatever it is now) undefeated - which is a realistic possibility - but I’d guess that the rest of them aren’t going to be able to survive going 0-1. Notre Dame has no conference championship, and a slate of mediocre ACC victories isn’t going to impress anyone (even if the committee desperately wants them in). Georgia and Oregon, on the other hand, could live with a loss here if they walked through the rest of their schedule unbeaten, but the Pac 12 cannibalizes itself every year and there’s just too many good SEC teams for UGA to run the table (especially with all their defensive turnover and a leprechaun at QB).

The fans already win by getting 2 MASSIVE games like these to start the year, but they can also expect the teams to play like everything is on the line.

MORE: College Football Week 1 Predictions

2. Where do the upsets come from?

It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of where. Between all the uncertainty surrounding teams and the fact that this will be the first meaningful action any of these players have seen since last fall (and for Freshman, a whole new speed to deal with), there will be at least one or two wonky results. I have a couple of teams I like to target early in the year for being overvalued (shout out my “fade USC” system), but this slate doesn’t have any obvious “trap games”.

So which games will surprise us? Well, figuring that part out takes a mixture of hard work and good luck. Spending some time on returning starters and transfer portal moves is a good place to start, and keep an eye on factors like offensive line turnover that aren't going to make big headlines but can have a huge impact on performance. Also make sure to look at recruiting analysis and overall talent for each roster, particularly with a large number of cross-conference games. Florida (unranked) vs Utah (top 10), for example, might be a place where you see the overall athleticism of UF make a difference despite last season’s issues.

MORE: Best Bets to win the 2022-23 National Championship

3. Uncertainty on the board creates risk, but it also creates value

Sportsbooks don’t like uncertainty. When a 'book sets its line, it wants to be as close to correct about the outcome as possible because that should cause an even split of money on either side of the bet. When that’s the case, they’re guaranteed to make money because of the juice they take. So, when you have situations of higher uncertainty, the 'books are in a tough spot since they simply don't have the ability to set lines as well. Use that to your advantage.

Now, that fact doesn't mean you can come out and easily sweep the floor in Week 1. We have no more information than the sportsbooks do (almost certainly less, in fact) and it’s going to take a lot more assumptions and guess work to get to a smart bet. But, while early season CFB gambling can be a bit of a challenge, there will be spots where books are more “wrong” than normal, and finding those will be crucial to making money this week. Be cautious, but attack in places where you think you’ve found high value - they may be more frequent this week than any other.