College Football Betting Preview: 2022 Big Ten Conference Analysis and Best Bets

After a year in which the Michigan Wolverines shocked the college football world by winning the Big Ten Championship — and going to the College Football Playoff — the Ohio State Buckeyes will be looking to reclaim their status as the cream of the crop in this conference.

With Ryan Day’s team being such a heavy favorite to win the Big Ten, are the Buckeyes even worth betting on? Find out in our Big Ten conference best bets piece, which is complete with team-by-team analysis. While some of the bigger brands in college football play in the Big Ten East, there's value to be found in leveraging the Big Ten West. We get into all of that below. 

🏈 College Football predictions for every game in 2022

Ohio State Buckeyes

Best odds: -225 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 10.5

The DimersBOT gives the Buckeyes a 67.7% chance of winning the Big Ten this year. No team in college football has a better probability of winning its conference than Ohio State, according to the model built by our data scientists. Part of that is because the Buckeyes are returning most of their defensive starters, which means this could be the most balanced Ohio State team we’ve seen since Ryan Day became head coach. The Buckeyes can always be counted on to field an elite offense, and that’s not changing with a group that features quarterback C.J. Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (one of our favorite bets to win the Heisman Trophy). If the Buckeyes get by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their season opener, a perfect regular season is on the table.

C.J. Stroud dropped a dime to Marvin Harrison Jr. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/j6uxSJljfU

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 1, 2022

Michigan Wolverines

Best odds: +750 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 4 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 9.5

The Wolverines took a massive leap in 2021, as Jim Harbaugh led his group to the College Football Playoff and helped Michigan defeat Ohio State for the first time since 2011. The program did, however, lose some real talent on the defensive side of the ball, so it’ll be interesting to see how Harbaugh is able to respond to that. Should we expect more of what we saw last season, or are the Wolverines going to look more like the team they were in the previous six years with Harbaugh on the sidelines? We’re thinking it’ll be more of the latter, especially if Michigan doesn’t make a change at quarterback. Cade McNamara just isn’t the type of guy to go out and make big plays, and his presence in the lineup really limits his team’s upside.  

Wisconsin Badgers

Best odds: +1200 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 5 Offense, 3 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 8.5

Wisconsin gave up fewer points per game than all but five teams in college football last season, and nobody gave up less yards per game than the Badgers. The team doesn’t return a whole lot of talent from that dominant unit, but defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has proven to be one of the best assistant coaches in the nation. Wisconsin has quite a bit of youngsters that are ready to contribute on that side of the ball, so look for Leonhard to once again have the Badgers playing at a high level defensively. The question for this team is whether or not Graham Mertz will take a step forward. The Badgers have the talent around him to turn in a special season, but they’ll need him to be more comfortable under center. Mertz was one of the most important recruits in program history, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype to this point.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Best odds: +1400 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 5 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 8.5

From 2016 to 2019, the Nittany Lions won a total of 42 games in four seasons. Over the last two seasons, the team has won only 11 contests. Will head coach James Franklin turn things back around in 2022? It certainly seems that way. After winning just four games in 2020, the Nittany Lions ended up earning seven victories in 2021 and securing a spot in the Outback Bowl. Now, the team returns seven starters on offense, with one of them being quarterback Sean Clifford. Last year, Clifford threw for 3,107 yards with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also adding some big plays as a runner. His experience under center is going to be crucial as Penn State looks to exert itself as one of the main players in the Big Ten once again. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Best odds: +2000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 5 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 7.5

On Tuesday, July 26, Nebraska head coach Scott Frost pointed out that his team had a chance in every game it played in 2021. Unfortunately for Cornhuskers fans, that doesn’t count for much of anything. Frost enters the 2022 season with one of the hotter seats in college football, but there is reason for hope. While Nebraska must play the Oklahoma Sooners, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin this year, the team is rather talented. Former University of Texas quarterback Casey Thompson has the dual-threat ability to really make Frost’s offense hum, and the Huskers defense should be solid. The group was very productive in 2021, giving up just 22.7 points per game. Nebraska also gets back quite a few key pieces from that unit, with Garrett Nelson, Caleb Tannor and Luke Reimer being some of the standouts. Still, eight wins might be a tough ask, even with this team looking solid, on paper. 

Iowa Hawkeyes

Best odds: +2200 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 7 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 7.5

Head coach Kirk Ferentz churns out a great product almost every year, and he gets nearly all his starters back from last season. Losing running back Tyler Goodson will definitely hurt a bit, but Iowa has a good offensive line and the next man up should do just fine running behind it. As always, the Hawkeyes will be very good on the defensive side of the ball, and the team should also have elite special teams. But whether or not this program can take a leap forward is up to Spencer Petras. The 6-foot-5 quarterback threw for only 1,880 yards with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions last year. He needs to show that he can be more than a game manager in his final year with the Hawkeyes.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Best odds: +2500 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 6 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 7.5

It’s hard to find a bad thing to say about what P.J. Fleck has done since taking over this program. Last year, his Golden Gophers finished with a 9-4 overall record and a 6-3 record in conference play. Tanner Morgan is back to lead what should be a strong Minnesota offense this year, especially if running back Mohamed Ibrahim is healthy after having missed nearly the entire season in 2021. Ibrahim rushed for 163 yards and two touchdowns in his lone game last season, and that came against Ohio State. That should give you an idea of how talented he is. The Golden Gophers could, however, be a bit worse on defense this season, which will cap the upside of this team. Look for Minnesota to be just outside the top tier of the Big Ten West. 

Michigan State Spartans 

Best odds: +2500 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 5 Offense, 9 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 7.5

The Spartans lost Kenneth Walker, who was one of the best running backs in football last season. They did, however, replace him with University of Colorado running back Jarek Broussard — while also bringing in Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger. As long as this offensive line holds up, it’s hard to see Michigan State being much worse on offense. It helps that Payton Thorne knocked it out of the park in his first year under center last year. The Spartans know that they can trust him to make good decisions in the passing game. Meanwhile, head coach Mel Tucker’s team gets nine starters back on defense. That means that he should get some good play out of that experienced unit, and it just isn’t hard to see this team winning eight or nine games this year.

The one under-the-radar transfer that happened this off-season was Colorado RB Jarek Broussard transferring to Michigan State. It would not shock me to see him as RB1 on that roster.

pic.twitter.com/nA5luqtk2u

— Kevin (@Daboys_22) June 30, 2022

Purdue Boilermakers

Best odds: +3000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 8 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 7.5

Purdue has some sleeper appeal as a contender in the Big Ten this year, as the Boilermakers have the ability to win the Big Ten West. They might not have much of a shot of beating a team like Ohio State, but you can worry about that if it comes to it. Head coach Jeff Brohm has proven to be one of the better coaches in the nation, as he has won at every stop despite not having nearly as much talent as the competition. This year, Brohm gets back most of his starters from last year’s team, including quarterback Aidan O’Connell. The senior should be one of the best signal-callers in the conference this year, even with star wideout David Bell having gone to the NFL. Look for this offense to be explosive, and the defense can be great if somebody fills the shoes of pass-rusher George Karlaftis, who is now with the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Maryland Terrapins

Best odds: +15000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 7 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 5.5

Maryland returns a lot of starters from last year’s seven-win team, which was the best one that head coach Mike Locksley has fielded since returning to College Park. The Terps earned a 54-10 win over the Virginia Tech Hokies in the Pinstripe Bowl, capping off a successful third season for Locksley in this newest stint with the team. Now, there are some real expectations in place with Taulia Tagovailoa back under center and surrounded by talent. Wide receiver Rakim Jarrett is one player to keep an eye on, as he had 62 catches for 829 yards and five scores last year, and he'll be the top option in this explosive offense in 2022. If the defense can make a significant jump, the Terps should go bowling once again. Maryland’s points per game allowed have dropped each of the last two years, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Best odds: +30000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 5 Offense, 5 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 4

Head coach Greg Schiano has had the Scarlet Knights playing a lot better in his two years since returning to Rutgers, and he’ll be hoping to lead his team to a winning record at some point in the next year or two. He does get back five key starters on defense this year, and that is the side of the ball that Schiano teams are always good on. Look for the Scarlet Knights to be a lot better on defense in 2022 than they were in 2021, but it’s just hard to see that mattering all that much with how bad this offense is. Rutgers just doesn’t have the type of talent to keep up with some of these other Big Ten offenses, but the hope is that freshman quarterback Gavin Wimsatt gets some good experience under his belt this year. That’ll go a long way towards helping the Scarlet Knights make a splash in 2023, which is shaping up to be a big year for Schiano. 

Illinois Fighting Illini

Best odds: +20000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 6 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 4.5

It’s hard to doubt what head coach Bret Bielema can do in the Big Ten after he quickly turned the Fighting Illini into a five-win team after they had won just two games in 2020. Bielema was a winning machine in his time at Wisconsin, and he is now trying to turn Illinois into a poor man’s version of that. Look for the Fighting Illini to work hard to establish the running game, while also doing their best to limit big plays on the defensive side of the ball. That is the best way for Bielema to keep his team in games, and it should help that he’ll have some improved play at quarterback in 2022. Last year, Illinois was a bit of a mess with Brandon Peters and Artur Sitkowski under center, but Tommy DeVito, a transfer from Syracuse, represents a significant talent upgrade.

Indiana Hoosiers

Best odds: +25000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 4 Offense, 7 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 4

The Hoosiers are coming off of their worst year of the Tom Allen era, but they should get back to flirting with bowl eligibility soon. Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak represents a big improvement at the quarterback position. Last year, Bazelak threw for 2,548 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions for the Tigers. Big Ten defenses are obviously very good, but he won’t be seeing anything like what he saw in the SEC last season. The Hoosiers also return quite a bit of talent on the defensive side of the ball, so you shouldn’t count on them allowing 33.3 points per game again. Indiana gave up only 20.3 points per game the previous season, and the Hoosiers should get back to that tougher style in 2022. At the very least, they'll be more competitive. 

Northwestern Wildcats

Best odds: +30000 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 5 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 4

It just seems downright irresponsible of the sportsbooks to be offering a win total this low on a Pat Fitzgerald-led team that also happens to be returning 14 starters. Of course, Northwestern will have a hard time earning wins over teams like Ohio State this year, but the Wildcats will feel like they have a shot in every other game they play. Northwestern’s offensive line should be a bit better in 2022 than it was in 2021, and Evan Hull should do a nice job of running behind it. The Wildcats are also counting on Ryan Hilinski to really boost their quarterback play. All in all, this offense should be a heck of a lot better than it was last year, when it averaged only 16.6 points per game. Expect Northwestern to get back into the mid to high 20’s, and the defense should also take a step forward this year. Fitzgerald is especially confident that his secondary will play at a high level.  

Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald indicated he's optimistic about the Wildcats' chances of turning things around and competing for championships:

"We expect to do that very quickly."https://t.co/zkGXYfEpmG pic.twitter.com/Wf8MchF2gu

— 247Sports (@247Sports) July 26, 2022

2022 Big Ten Conference Best Bet: Iowa (+2200)

It’s pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten this year, but there’s just no sense in betting the Buckeyes at their current odds. You’d simply be paying too much juice, especially in a sport where anything can happen. Would it really surprise you if Ohio State lost a road game or two? With that said, you’re better off betting on somebody from the Big Ten West and Iowa looks like the best play of the bunch. The Hawkeyes are just an insanely difficult team to beat every year, and that should be amplified a bit with them having so much experience heading into the 2022 season. The only question mark for Iowa is at the quarterback position, where Petras must play better in his senior year. The Hawkeyes will be counting on him to make some bigger throws this year, rather than just relying strictly on the running game.  

2022 Big Ten Conference Best Value Play: Northwestern (+30000) 

Is it likely? Absolutely not. Is there a chance? Absolutely. The Wildcats don’t look like one of the best teams in this conference right now, but Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the entire country. He knows how to motivate his players and there aren’t many programs that develop talent as well as Northwestern. With so many starters returning, it just isn’t hard to see a scenario in which this team significantly outperforms expectations. And being that the Wildcats play in the Big Ten West, it’d just be ludicrous to rule out something wild happening here. Don’t be afraid to throw a tiny amount on this play and just hope for the best. You might end up in a situation where the Wildcats are sitting at eight or nine wins late in the year and you have an opportunity to guarantee yourself some money by hedging wisely. You can also take the Over on the team’s win total to make sure you win what you’re risking on this.