College Football Betting Preview: 2022 Big 12 Conference Analysis and Best Bets

The talk of the college football offseason was about Lincoln Riley leaving the Oklahoma Sooners for the USC Trojans, who are now one of the favorites to win the Pac-12 in 2022. The Sooners are still getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers as former Clemson Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables is highly regarded, and he’ll now patrol the sidelines in Norman.

Last year, the Baylor Bears beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 21-16, in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game. We’re looking to identify which team will be this year's champion in our Big 12 conference betting preview. 

Much like the Pac-12, this is going to be one of your last chances to bet on this conference in its current form. The SEC is taking Oklahoma and Steve Sarkisian’s Texas Longhorns in 2024, and it’s only a matter of time before more movement is announced. With that said, let’s find some winners while this conference is still standing. We're giving out our best bet to win the conference in 2022, as well as our best value bet.  

🏈 College Football predictions for every game in 2022

Oklahoma Sooners

Best odds: +220 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 5 Offense, 5 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 9

Losing Riley to USC was undoubtedly a big blow for Oklahoma, but offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby proved to be one of the best offensive minds in football at UCF and Ole Miss. When you pair that with Venables’ ability to lead a defense, it’s hard to say the Sooners are in a worse place in the coaching department. Whether Oklahoma is able to continue recruiting at the same level is a question for another day, but expectations are rightfully high in Norman in the first year of the Venables era. UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel should instantly find success under center in Lebby’s offense, which will give the lefty plenty of chances to throw deep. Not many quarterbacks on the planet possess Gabriel’s touch on vertical throws, so it’s a perfect fit for him. Defensively, having only five starters back hurts Oklahoma, but Venables has churned out elite defenses with much less. 

Dillon Gabriel: 59 passing touchdowns when kept clean since 2019. Third most among all Quarterbacks🎯 pic.twitter.com/agB0Tima7X

— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 14, 2022

Texas Longhorns

Best odds: +230 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 7 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 8.5

Sarkisian’s first year in Texas ended with the Longhorns missing out on a bowl game, but they should be able to turn things around in a big way in 2022. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is viewed as a threat to win the Heisman Trophy this year, so his ability to throw and make plays with his legs makes him a great fit for this offense. Texas has a superstar at running back in Bijan Robinson, so that will make the game a lot easier on Ewers in his first year as a college starter. But scoring points is only half the battle for Texas, which must show that it can get stops. Perhaps that’s an area where Gary Patterson, the legendary former TCU coach that is now serving as a “special assistant," can help. The Longhorns have a lot to correct on that side of the ball, but Patterson thinks the game at a high level and has a track record of exceeding expectations. 

Baylor Bears

Best odds: +700 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 7 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 8

Dave Aranda has proven to be just as effective as a head coach as he was as a defensive coordinator with both Wisconsin and LSU. Last year, Baylor defeated Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship, and this team should be similarly excellent. With quarterback Blake Shapen entering his first season as a full-time starter, offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes should have more to work with in the passing game than he did with Gerry Bohanon under center. Bohanon was a good runner, but the Bears should be plenty fine in the running department with their solid stable of rushers in the backfield. Defensively, Aranda and defensive coordinator Ron Roberts get to work with seven returning starters. They gave up only 18.3 points per game a year ago, which was good for 10^th in the nation. It’s jarring to see odds this favorable for a program this good.

What a DIME by Blake Shapen 🤯pic.twitter.com/H1f3wAci1L

— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) December 4, 2021

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Best odds: +700 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 4 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 8.5

Mike Gundy has done wonders throughout his career in Stillwater, but it’s fair to have concerns about the state of this year’s team. The Cowboys have a rather high Over/Under win total for a team that doesn’t have a great quarterback and lost its defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, to Ohio State. Derek Mason, who replaces Knowles, is a bright defensive mind, but he’ll have some big shoes to fill after the Cowboys had the best scoring defense in the Big 12 a year ago. Oklahoma State should once again be dominant up front, as the team returns some big-time run stuffers and a couple of dangerous pass rushers. But the secondary is a legitimate question mark, and that’s alarming when you factor in that this Oklahoma State offense might not be as explosive as usual.

Kansas State Wildcats

Best odds: +1500 at BetMGM

Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 6 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 6.5

Former Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez always showed a ton of promise with the Cornhuskers, but injuries and untimely turnovers ultimately made him a bit of a disappointment. He is, however, a very talented player and he could be in for a big year in a conference that doesn’t have many great passing defenses. It helps that star running back Deuce Vaughn and an elite Kansas State running game will open up a lot of opportunities for Martinez as both a thrower and a runner. Defensively, Kansas State returns six starters from a team that gave up only 21.0 points per game last year. If defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman can patch up his secondary, there’s a good chance the Wildcats outperform expectations. That’s what head coach Chris Klieman has done throughout his entire career, and there’s quite a bit of talent in Manhattan right now.  

TCU Horned Frogs

Best odds: +1600 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 7 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 7

TCU has some sleeper appeal in the Big 12 this year, as new head coach Sonny Dykes inherits an experienced roster after having gone 25-10 in his final three years at SMU. Dykes should be able to take things to another level with Big 12 resources, and there is certainly opportunity in the conference right now. Look for Dykes’ ability to scheme an offense to make either Max Duggan or Chandler Morris look a lot better under center than the two did a year ago. TCU has some real talent at wideout this season and running back Kendre Miller is explosive out of the backfield. With that in mind, the Horned Frogs should score more than the 28.7 points per game they put up in 2021. Defensively, things were rather ugly in 2021, but defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie is a smart coach and TCU has seven starters back on that side of the ball. If Gillespie can turn that into a formidable unit, the Horned Frogs will be tough to beat.

Iowa State Cyclones

Best odds: +2000 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 5 Offense, 3 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 6.5

Brock Purdy is no longer the quarterback for this Iowa State team, selected by the San Francisco 49ers with the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. It’s now Hunter Dekkers’ time to take control of the offense and head coach Matt Campbell really likes what the kid can do from the pocket. Dekkers has a good arm and should be operating behind an improved offensive line, so look for the Cyclones to take a few more deep shots in 2022. Wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson is a big-time performer for this team, as proven by his 83 receptions, 987 yards and five touchdowns last year. Campbell will just need to figure out his defense, which hasn’t been a problem since he arrived in Ames. The Cyclones had the 20^th-ranked scoring defense in the nation last year, but they have only three starters back. Fortunately for them, one of them is defensive end Will McDonald IV. He had 11.5 sacks in 2021 and perfectly embodies what the program is all about. This should be a bowl team in 2022, but they’ll be expecting a lot more than that in a few years.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Best odds: +4000 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 3 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 5.5

West Virginia is going to look a lot different on offense this year, as the team will bring some serious excitement with Graham Harrell’s show now taking a stop in Morgantown. Harrell has already overseen some potent offenses in his time at North Texas and USC, and he’ll have big-armed quarterback JT Daniels under center right off the bat. Daniels has had trouble finding a true home at the college level, but he’ll be welcomed with open arms by a fanbase that has experienced some mediocre play at quarterback in recent seasons. Assuming Harrell holds up his end of the bargain, the Mountaineers should be better than they were a year ago. Head coach Neal Brown has proven throughout his career that he can be trusted to put out a good product on the defensive end.

Texas Red Raiders

Best odds: +5000 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 5 Offense, 6 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 5.5

It'll be interesting to see who ends up starting at quarterback for the Red Raiders, as Tyler Shough was once viewed as a can’t-miss NFL prospect, but he is now fighting for his job with both Donovan Smith and Behren Morton. The winner of that battle will get to operate in new offensive coordinator Zach Kittley’s system, which is one in which Bailey Zappe threw for 5,967 yards with 62 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions at Western Kentucky last year. With that in mind, we might see a return to the high-flying Texas Tech offenses of the past. If the Red Raiders do end up putting up a lot of points, this rebuild could be a bit quicker than expected. Texas Tech made improvements as a defensive team last year, and the group should be even better in 2022.

Kansas Jayhawks

Best odds: +30000 at Caesars

Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 8 Defense
Over/Under Regular Season Win Total: 2.5

Kansas won only two games in 2021 and yet it’s still clear that the program is heading in the right direction under former Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold. The Jayhawks were a lot more competitive in losses than they had been in recent years, and there appears to be a real culture in place in Lawrence now. Kansas also happens to be returning a conference-high 17 players from last year’s team. It goes without saying that some of those players aren’t very good, but experience matters in college football. The Jayhawks have a few more winnable games on the schedule this year, so perhaps they’ll find a way to win three or four contests in 2022. Baby steps will go a long way for Leipold with a program that has been the laughingstock of the conference for a very long time.

2022 Big 12 Conference Best Bet: Oklahoma (+220)

The DimersBOT gives the Sooners a 32.9% chance to win the conference — and the sixth-best chance of anyone to win the national championship. Our intelligent group of data analysts use a lot of information to come up with those projections, but two that made Oklahoma stand above the rest in this conference are quarterback rating and schedule/opponent team ratings. Also, the Sooners have an easy early-season schedule and happen to play most of their toughest opponents in Norman. The model is seemingly very high on Gabriel’s ability to continue shredding defenses, even in a tougher conference — which might not be surprising with him having familiarity with Lebby's system. When you factor in all of that with Venables’ ability to lead, it’s hard not to throw a few bones on Oklahoma. 

2022 Big 12 Conference Best Value Play: Baylor (+700) 

As previously mentioned, the Bears should have a more dynamic offense with Shapen at quarterback for the full season. He’s a sharper passer than Bohanon was, and Grimes should be able to open up the playbook to take advantage of some of the Big 12’s weaker secondaries. Baylor is also going to have a scary defensive front this year, which is a staple of an Aranda defense. The only thing standing in the way here are road games at Oklahoma and Texas, where the Bears will likely have to split wins in order to contend for another title. Either way, this is well-coached group and the talent is there, so this is great value for a program that is on the brink of becoming elite again.