College Football Bets: What You Need To Know Before Week 9 2023

Well, folks, apparently college football does have a limit for the amount of chaos it’s willing to throw at us in one day. At certain points on Saturday afternoon/evening I was legitimately wondering if any teams with CFP hopes would be left standing at the end of the day aside from Ohio State and Michigan. Sure, we did see the death of PSU, got to watch USC blow themselves up Wile E Coyote style as they do every year, and even got one of the funniest upsets I have ever seen when a borderline high school program beat UNC in Chapel Hill. But Florida State, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Washington were also all losing in the second half before finding a way to right the ship and secure a win, and if any of those had flipped we’d be in a far bigger conundrum.

But, while it may be tempting to write off the teams who struggled against weak opposition (particularly OU and Washington), the reality is that sometimes college football is about survival. In five weeks we wont remember or care about squeaking out close games if they handle their business from here on out, and it’s near impossible to avoid having any bad performances over the course of a season. For now, we have six legitimately strong undefeateds (no offense Air Force and JMU), and a few other teams still sniffing around with a chance at a playoff berth. The sprint to the finish looks like it’s going to be another good one, strap the hell in.

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1. Spot the Booby Trap

Aside from the cheap laugh I’ll get from a few of you by saying “booby,” I chose to include this nugget because it perfectly follows from the introduction. There were very few people concerned about the above teams losing last week the same way nobody thought Pitt would beat Louisville, and on paper there aren't a ton of obvious spots for top 10 teams to slip up. But, this is college football…

Looking at the slate at a high level, things seem similarly straightforward. Analytically it would be hard for me to make a good argument about how Wake Forest could test FSU or how the Stanford Fighting Tree is going to take down Washington. But, inevitably, at least a couple of these games will defy rationality and end up close. A rivalry match between UGA and UF is an obvious spot to look at, but a team like OSU coming off a massive win over Penn State could be in for a bit of a let down as well.

2. Extra Variables - Friend or Enemy?

Every sport has additional factors to consider as a season progresses towards its end. In American pro sports its positioning for draft picks, in Europe its relegation (way more fun), and in CFB it’s trying to decipher motivation level for teams with nothing but a mediocre bowl game (or worse) to play for. These are still “student” athletes after all and upcoming finals or holidays start to seem more important as your 3-5 football team has to go get the snot beat out of them by some top class program.

In some ways the additional variables can be a drawback, but there’s also value to be found. Certain teams might be massively motivated by the prospect of making a bowl game (think Colorado) while others might slowly fade as the season comes to an end. It may not be a major factor in capping your picks, but keep it in mind as you scan the board.

MORE: Our updated look at College Football Futures: Who will be crowned National Champion?

3. Time to Start Posturing

You’ve got to win to make the playoffs. Looking good simply doesnt matter if your record ends at 7-5 even if those seven wins were all against top 25 teams. But, while that may be true, the reality is that how you win starts to matter more and more as the season goes on. Nobody remembers or cares about an ugly win in September, but slugging it out in the last month with a sub .500 team might make an impression in the minds of the CFP committee.

In a four-team playoff, this might not be as big of an issue. The Committee really only has a small number of teams to pick from and it maybe has one tough decision to make a year. But, if you’re in that spot, being able to point to some massive wins can be a deciding factor, especially because bubble teams typically have a loss to “explain.” Sportsmanship and respect are great, but look for teams to continue to play hard and beat the piss out of opposition who are already dead to send a message in their last few games.

Make sure you check for value in Dimers' College Football Player Prop Bets section before locking in any picks for your parlays.

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