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College Football Bets: What You Need To Know Before Week 6, 2023
College Football simply does not miss. Even with just a 13 Week season and a smattering of useless matchups every week, I have yet to end a Saturday saying “well, that was ok I guess, but I’d have been better off playing golf or hitting up a brewery or doing some apple picking to appease Mrs. Prospector.” Sure, a productive member of society might disagree with that statement, but they can die rich and sad while I enjoy my short time on this earth.
I’ll save the big items for my “three things to know”, but a couple of headlines from this weekend that aren’t so “massive” deserve a little love. First, take a fucking bow LSU and Ole Miss. High school football coaches all over the country were ripping their hair out as they watched missed tackle after missed tackle, but 100+ point games are truly a joy to watch and thank you for providing non stop entertainment. Second, I want to advocate for a change to NCAA rules where Notre Dame and Duke are not allowed to play each other in sports - not because it didn't produce an exciting game, but because I cant think of a matchup where I so desperately want both fan bases to suffer. For the average viewer, the only win would be no winner.
But last week is now behind us and it’s time to rest up and prepare for Week 6. Here are three things to know!
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1. Contenders or Pretenders
With four or five games under the belt of every team, we can now start making more intelligent statements about their true quality. One or two ugly games to start the year may just be shaking the rust off while a couple of blowouts over FCS schools may cause some overblown hype, but we’re getting close to halfway through the regular season and I’m ready to start asking serious questions about a few “top teams.”
Georgia is the most obvious candidate, and I can say with certainty that this group is nowhere near as good as the last two seasons. Bowers will carry them through some tough spots, but a mediocre pass rush and a QB who cant run will stop them from getting too far. USC also seems destined to fail, mostly because their defense is just fucking horrible, but it will take a team with enough talent to slow down Caleb Williams for them to lose, and Oregon may be the only Pac 12 team capable. I continue to have doubts about others (FSU, Washington), but look for the two above to come crashing down at some point
2. Red River Rivalry Week
Normally a single game doesn't warrant one of my three main headlines, but I think this year’s iteration of Texas vs. Oklahoma does. First and foremost, it is truly one of the best rivalries in CFB and the atmosphere around that battle is second to almost none as far as hype and intrigue. I expect nothing different this year, and it will be the first game I turn on at noon.
But, more importantly, we may see the Big 12 regular season title decided by this matchup. Sure, the winner here may find themselves fighting it out down the road with a team they should put away easily, but the overall quality of the Big 12 is low and I find it very unlikely that Kansas or Kansas State (the “best of the rest”) make any real waves. It’s a long season and injuries happen but, as it stands, this may be for all the marbles (until they likely play again in the conference title game).
Our updated look at College Football Futures: Who will be crowned National Champion?
3. Which Conferences Will Destroy Themselves?
I spent a bit of time last week discussing the Pac 12, where I mentioned that the conference has a history of “mutually assured destruction” when it comes to football. In fact, it seems like a realistic possibility again. The conferences that have the best success producing Playoff Teams are the ones where a team or two clearly rise above the rest. We’ve seen it in the Big 10 (OSU/Michigan), the SEC (Alabama/UGA), and even the ACC (Clemson). The key to success in CFB seems, ironically, to be a lack of competition.
So which conferences are going to rip themselves apart. Well, for one, the Pac 12 seems like almost a shoe in. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that having 6 teams in the top 20 is a recipe for disaster, and the best they can hope for is that Oregon finds a way to survive the onslaught. The ACC also has concerns in this area, with no real spectacular team but a few dangerous programs like UNC, Miami, Duke and Louisville who will find a way to ruin things for the Noles. But hey, even the Big 10 and SEC don't seem immune this year so maybe we’ll just get utter chaos. That’s something I can always get behind
Make sure you check for value in Dimers' College Football Player Prop Bets section before locking in any picks for your parlays.
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