College Football Bets: What You Need To Know Before Week 12 2023

What is this feeling? It almost seems like - and I know it sounds crazy - but it ALMOST seems like a sense of clarity. With Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Washington all handling tricky matchups, the path to the playoff is perfectly laid out for us. Almost too perfect. And in college football, there is NOTHING more suspicious than straightforward answers.

Now, while the weekend did lack major upsets, it wasn’t devoid of odd moments or signs of danger. Michigan’s OC crying tears of joy like he’d just won Olympic gold was both bizarre and incredible considering the Wolverines only got slapped with the smallest of punishments. Do whatever it takes to rally your team I guess, but I don’t think anyone is buying the “Michigan is America’s team” angle that Harbaugh seems to genuinely believe. And, as I was rudely reminded, Texas seems to enjoy the rush of seeing how close they can come to blowing every football game, akin to one of those psychos who walks along the edge of skyscrapers. It will be funny to watch them eventually fall off 500 feet to their death (metaphorically, of course), but for those of us on Texas -9.5 it was less than funny.

But last week was last week, and we need to look ahead. Time for 3 things to know about Week 12!

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1. The SEC and Big 10 Solidify their spot

Never say never, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario anymore where we don’t get at least 1 team from each of these conferences. So long as UGA doesn’t lay an egg against Tennessee, both the Dawgs and Tide should comfortably ride to the SEC title game with the winner getting a spot in the playoff. Similarly, Michigan and Ohio State will be playing in the de facto Big 10 Title game in week 13, where the winner only has to beat up on the speed bump known as Iowa after that.

The more interesting conversation for these conferences is actually whether they can find a way to sneak in multiple teams. I would argue that the loser of both is probably better than anyone in the Pac-12 or ACC (though a 2-loss Alabama has not shot), but if Washington and FSU win out the committee won’t have a choice but to take them. A situation where two-time defending champ UGA has to watch from home because of a loss to Bama in the SEC title seems so wrong, but it could very well happen

2. Will the ACC or Pac-12 blow it?

Both the ACC and Pac-12 can essentially guarantee themselves a spot if FSU and Washington win out. FSU seems very likely to succeed, though Florida won’t be a pushover and Louisville is a tough beat. The Pac-12 is slightly more interesting, both because Washington has a tough test left against Oregon State this weekend and because Oregon still could make a compelling case. But, so long as the Huskies and Noles handle business, there isn’t really a scenario where they don’t finish in the Top 4

But can they do it? FSU seems to have an easier path, but, aside from their win over LSU that’s gotten less impressive with time, they haven’t impressed much and could very well blow this. And, to be honest, it might be for the best if they do - I think they’d get eaten alive by the teams from the two real conferences. As for Washington, they’ve continued to find ways to win and their offense is lethal. But a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 Title would likely be a coin flip and the Huskies’ defense is absolutely useless. If I had to guess, I think FSU scrapes their way in but Washington doesn't.

MORE: Our updated look at College Football Futures: Who will be crowned National Champion?

3. An Ode to the Death of Divisions

There aren’t a lot of true positives to take away from conference realignment, but one coming change that undoubtedly will be good is that we no longer have conference title games decided by division. The Big 12 and Pac 12 parted with that dumb structure long ago (though with just Oregon State and Washington State left, who knows what they’ll cook up) but until next year the division system still remains in the other three power conferences. And, as we see year in and year out (looking at you Big 10), it does nothing but fuck things up.

The SEC has found better balance because UGA produced a genuine powers house for the traditionally weaker East division, and the ACC is such a clusterfuck that it often doesn’t matter, but we are once again going to be treated to a Big 10 title game where the winner of Ohio State and Michigan takes on the default winner of the West. It’s produced some ugly games in the past, but an Iowa team that plays the ugliest football imaginable may truly produce the worst (or maybe best?) iteration. Alas, all three conferences will scrap them for next year so hopefully we avoid any useless games (or, more likely, we just get to watch OSU-Michigan play back-to-back games every year).

Make sure you check for value in Dimers' College Football Player Prop Bets section before locking in any picks for your parlays.

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