College Football Best Bets: Three Favorite Picks for Week 5 of the 2022 Season

We went 2-1 with our college football best bets last week, but we're looking to do even more damage with our Week 5 picks. Check out the trio of plays we have for you to follow for the October 1 slate. 

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Week 5 College Football Best Bets for Saturday, October 1, 2022

Navy Midshipmen vs. Air Force Falcons - 12:00PM ET

This season has obviously been something of a disaster for the Midshipmen, but Ken Niumatalolo is a good head coach and he'll continue to try and improve his squad. With that in mind, we like this team to continue competing hard and we think this is a decent spot to back Navy. 

The Midshipmen triple-option offense isn't what it once was — and the team sometimes changes its look a bit — but this program still has the identity of controlling the time of possession and working hard on the other side of the ball. And considering Air Force plays the same exact way, you just have to think that the Midshipmen will be prepared on both sides of the ball here.

If this turns into the low-scoring game we think it will, you'll feel great having a team getting 14 points. And since the start of last season, Navy is 6-0 against the spread when facing teams that outscore their opponents by at least 10 points per game. 

If all of that isn't enough for you, there's also the fact that the Falcons had some negative press go their way this week. Air Force was found to be committing recruiting violations, which has to be something of a distraction for the team heading into this week. The Falcons should be able to win this game, but we just like the Midshipmen to make it somewhat tight. 

BET: Navy +14 at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

🏈 Navy vs. Air Force Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Navy vs. Air Force

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Louisville Cardinals vs. Boston College Eagles - 12:00PM ET

Things haven't gone well this year for Jeff Hafley and Boston College, which is coming off of a 44-14 loss to Florida State last week. But to see the Eagles getting more than two touchdowns against a mediocre Cardinals team is laughable. Louisville is 0-2 both straight-up and ATS when facing ACC competition this year, and this team hasn't done anything to prove that it can cover a spread this big — especially on the road. 

The Eagles definitely have to be focused defensively in this game, as they will need to do a decent job of containing Malik Cunningham. Cunningham is one of the most explosive dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation, but Boston College is well aware of that. The team will be extra careful and make sure it doesn't let Cunningham's legs be the reason it gets blown out. The Eagles are better off making Cunningham beat them with his arm. 

Louisville does, however, have to figure out a way to stop Phil Jurkovec and the Boston College offense, and we don't think Scott Satterfield's team can do that. This Eagles group hasn't yet hit its stride, but Jurkovec is viewed as an NFL prospect and he should be in for a big day against a lousy Cardinals defense. We think he'll be able to do his part to keep pace with Cunningham and Louisville, and that's ultimately why we see this as too big of a point spread. 

BET: Boston College +14.5 at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

🏈 Louisville vs. Boston College Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Louisville vs. Boston College

NC State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigers - 7:30PM ET

Clemson's offense has looked explosive to start the season, but the team now runs into an NC State team that is eighth in the nation in scoring defense. This Wolfpack squad returned 10 starters from last year's defense, making it both experienced and talented. This is easily the most ferocious defense that the Tigers have faced thus far, and it might be the best that the group faces all season. With that said, we do see Clemson running into some trouble in this one. 

A meeting with an up-and-down Tigers defense could also be what Wolfpack quarterback Devin Leary needs to get his offense going. Last year, Leary threw for 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has had some trouble finding his stride this year, but it wouldn't be surprising if he put up some big numbers in this game — assuming the conditions aren't awful. Clemson was lit up by Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons passing game last week, and NC State will surely try to take some deep shots if there isn't too much wind in this one. And if the conditions are bad, this is just far too many points for a team with an elite defense to be getting. 

The reality here is that NC State is just one of the most underrated teams in the country, and this is going to be a group that is fired up to play one of the best teams in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Tigers might be due for something of a letdown after last week's exhausting win over the Demon Deacons. They emptied the tank in that one and it can be hard to regroup after that type of victory. 

The cherry on top here is that NC State is 8-0 ATS when coming off a game in which it forced no turnovers since the start of the 2020-21 season. This Wolfpack team is probably due to force one or two in this game, and it's also hard to ignore that the Tigers are 9-13-1 ATS when coming off a win by six or fewer points under Dabo Swinney. That speaks to Clemson's mindset after close wins and makes it likely that the previously-mentioned letdown could occur. 

BET: NC State +7.5 at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook

🏈 NC State vs. Clemson Predictions
📈 Betting preview: NC State vs. Clemson