Choose Your Own NBA Finals Adventure: Finding the Perfect Bet in Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

The start of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat is imminent. It’s been a thrilling season, matched with equally thrilling playoffs that have been packed full of storylines. A Cinderella-esque Miami Heat squad facing a No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets team feels a little too on the nose of a David and Goliath matchup but we don’t play the games, we just watch ‘em and make our bets.

To highlight how much of an adventure this NBA year has been, we’re throwing it back with a ‘Choose Your Own Adventure’ approach to wagering on these NBA Finals. There’s plenty of value to be found among some interesting markets and it can be overwhelming, so we thought it’d be fun to help guide you to your perfect Finals bet.

RELATED: NBA Finals Betting Preview

We’ll ask a series of questions, and your answer to each will determine your path, and ultimately your recommended wager(s) to place on the Finals!

Before heading off on the adventure, sign up for BetMGM ➡️here⬅️where you can get up to $1,000 back on your first wager if your bet loses. Plus, both new and existing users can score bonus bets on Wednesdays and Saturdays until June 7.

1. Who Wins the NBA Finals?

• Denver Nuggets – Scroll down to Question 1A
• Miami Heat – BET Heat to Win (+310) or scroll down to Question 1B
• Can’t decide – Scroll down to Question 2

There’s no better or more logical way to get started than by picking your champion!

1A. Will Nikola Jokic Win Finals MVP?

• YES – Scroll down to Question 2
• NO – Scroll down to Question 1C

No matter if you pick “yes” or “no,” the value for the Joker to win the series MVP at -350 is non-existent, just like the Nuggets' title odds of -400. We’ll have to search other options or a different market if you want a Nuggets ticket in your pocket.

1B. Will Jimmy Butler Win Finals MVP?

• YES – BET Jimmy Butler to Win Finals MVP (+350) or scroll down to Question 2
• NO – Scroll to Question 1D

If you’ve picked the Heat to win, the obvious choice is Jimmy Butler to win MVP. You get his odds to win the award at a slightly better price than the Heat’s odds to win the title, and the correlation between the two is extremely high.

1C. Will Jamal Murray Win Finals MVP?

• YES – BET Jamal Murray to Win Finals MVP (+1200) and/or Jamal Murray Top Points Scorer (+200)
• NO – Scroll down to Question 2

Should someone on the Nuggets NOT named Nikola Jokic win the Finals MVP, then it’s going to be Jamal Murray. His odds are excellent for the clear #2 choice on his own team. Obviously, you’ll need something significant to prevent Jokic from winning like an unfortunate injury or a missed game or two, as well as an all-time series performance from Murray.

1D. Will Bam Adebayo win Finals MVP?

• YES – BET Bam Adebayo to Win Finals MVP (+5000)
• NO – BET Caleb Martin to Win Finals MVP (+3000)

If the Heat win the Finals and Jimmy Buckets doesn’t secure the Finals MVP for whatever reason (injury, poor play, takes a backseat to the rest of the team, voters are drunk, etc), it will almost assuredly be one of these two. Bam is the more established name which always carries some weight, but Caleb Martin has been playing out of his gourd lately and a few clutch shots could put him in the crosshairs of the award.

2. How Many Games Will There Be in the NBA Finals?

• 4 or 5 – Scroll to Question 2A
• 6 – Scroll to Question 2B
• 7 – Scroll to Question 3

There are two options for a seven-game series: either it’s competitive or it isn’t. If you think these teams are more closely matched than they’d appear, you’ll have a few options. If you’re expecting a sweep or gentlemen’s sweep, the Nuggets will most likely be your play.

Our model's simulations in pretty pie chart form. 

2A. Do the Nuggets sweep the Finals?

• YES – BET Nuggets win series 4-0 (+450)
• NO – Scroll to Question 2C

No faith in the Heat? Come on, they’ve still got a 1 in 4 chance from our model!

2B. Do the Nuggets win the Finals?

• YES – BET Nuggets win series 4-2 (+400) 
• NO – BET Heat win series 4-2 (+750) 

If you’re envisioning a competitive series, this is the end of the line for you. Pick your winner and lock them in to win in either six games, seven games or just bet them both for the same team. A 4-2 series win is the most likely scenario for a Heat win, coming in at 10.8% of the time, but all four of the Nuggets' victory scenarios come out ahead in probability.

2C. Do the Nuggets win the Finals?

• YES – BET Nuggets win series 4-1 (+225)
• NO – BET Heat win series 4-1 (+2000)

You should only be here if you expect the series to end in exactly 5 games. It’s unlikely you found yourself down this path if you would fade the Heat, but either way, this is where you want to invest your money if you think the series is a short one but don’t see a sweep. Denver to win the series in five games is our most frequent result, clocking in at 26.3% of the time.

3. Will the Finals Reach Game 7?

• YES – BET Nuggets Win 4-3 (+325), Heat Win 4-3 (+950) or Exactly 7 Games (+240)
• NO – We didn't send you here. Start over!

This is a very specific market, but if you’re high on the likelihood of a Game 7 and bet on all three of these plays, you’ll guarantee yourself two of these wins if the series goes the limit. 

The series reaching a Game 7 is our second-most likely result at 20.3%, with the Nuggets coming away as champions.

You've reached the end of the adventure! Now, go place your bet!

Be sure to check back for more NBA Finals betting content before Game 1 tips off on Thursday night.

 

Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.