Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Betting Lines for Sunday, October 2

In a meeting between a certified legend and a future legend, Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium for some Sunday Night Football at 8:20PM ET on October 2. These teams both have Super Bowl aspirations, so this should be played with some playoff-like intensity under the lights.  

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Chiefs vs. Buccaneers betting preview below. 

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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 52% chance the Bucs win on the money line
• 52% probability the Bucs cover the -1 spread
• No edge on the Over/Under of 45.5 points 

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Chiefs vs. Buccaneers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds and Betting Lines

The Points Spread (Buccaneers -1)

The Chiefs are coming off of a bad loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but that's not one that should make you overreact. The Colts might have been winless heading into that game, but they're a team that should be in the postseason picture at the end of the year and they were in a must-win situation. Still, it is a little difficult to expect Kansas City to roll into Brady's house and win a night game. 

The Chiefs haven't exactly looked dominant to start the year, especially when you consider the fact that they probably should have lost to the Los Angeles Chargers. A few lucky breaks went Kansas City's way in that one, so this could easily be a 1-2 football team right now. And for as good as Mahomes is, the Chiefs offensive line has had its struggles and the team hasn't yet found somebody to step up and replace Tyreek Hill's production. With that said, the Buccaneers offense might be a bit more trustworthy right now, especially with Mike Evans back in the lineup. 

MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities

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Tampa Bay also happens to be the team with the better defense, as the Buccaneers are giving up the fourth-fewest yards per game in football this year. There also isn't a team in the league that is giving up less points per game than head coach Todd Bowles' group, and that shouldn't come as much of a surprise given how respected he is as a defensive coach — and the talent that is dispersed throughout this unit. 

With the Buccaneers being every bit as good offensively, much better defensively and also playing at home, it's just hard to come up with reasons not to back Tampa Bay here. The DimersBOT also happens to like the Buccaneers to handle their business. 

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Over/Under Points Total (45.5)

The Over is 9-5 when Kansas City is coming off a loss by three or fewer points under head coach Andy Reid, and the Over is also 4-3 when the Chiefs have had to play against defenses that give up 17 or fewer points per game in that time. The latter one is pretty important, as it shows that the Over is still very much in play even in a game that features an elite defense. Also, the total is lower than usual for the Chiefs because the Bucs are in this game, making it more reachable for both of these teams. 

RELATED: Full betting previews for every NFL game

While we do think the Bucs should find a way to stifle Mahomes, that won't be without a few hiccups. This is still the most talented quarterback in football and he'll surely lead his team on some successful drives. We just trust the Buccaneers to come up with some timely stops and score a little more. But that doesn't mean this can't be a high-scoring game. We like the Over. 

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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Free Picks

Best Bet: Bucs -1

Tampa Bay's defense has been a force this season and we expect it to give Mahomes some issues here. If that happens, it's just hard to envision the Bucs not coming up with a way to win this game at home. 

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