Chiefs vs. 49ers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Sunday, October 23, 2022

Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 3:13PM | First published: Oct 18, 2022, 8:54PM

Written by Greg Waddell, Creative Strategist

Chiefs vs. 49ers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Sunday, October 23, 2022

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers face off in a game filled with playoff implications at 4:25PM ET on Sunday, October 23.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Chiefs vs. 49ers betting preview.

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Chiefs vs. 49ers Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

56% chance the Chiefs cover the -3 spread
63% chance the Chiefs win on the moneyline
51% chance the Over/Under 48 points goes over

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Chiefs vs. 49ers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds and Betting Lines

Why The Chiefs Will Cover The Spread

The Chiefs couldn't beat the Bills last week, resulting in the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era that Kansas City didn't cover as an underdog. But that shouldn't be too much of a worry for Chiefs fans — going back to Mahomes' second year as the starting quarterback, the Chiefs are 13-3 in games following a loss.

The 49ers defense has been great this season, but they haven't seen an offense with the talent that the Chiefs have. The quarterbacks the Niners have faced in succession are Justin Fields, Geno Smith. Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield and Marcus Mariota. It's time for them to face an elite talent, and we'll see what they are made of.

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Why The 49ers Will Cover The Spread

Just like we said the Niners haven't seen an offense like the Chiefs' star-studded attack, Kansas City hasn't seen a defense like San Francisco's. The Niners are giving up just 14.8 points per game, and have held every single opponent they have faced this season under 20 points.

The one great defense Kansas City has faced has been the Bills, and the Chiefs promptly lost last weekend. Despite leading for much of the game, when it came down to crunch time, Mahomes and his weapons were stifled. If San Francisco can follow the same recipe for success and come up big in the fourth quarter, the Niners can cover in this game.

Why The Over Will Hit

Any game with Mahomes and Kelce has a good chance of going Over. Four of six Chiefs games on the year have landed Over 48 points, and they are most comfortable playing games in the 50s.

In the Chief's most recent loss to Buffalo, all 44 points were scored in the final three quarters. It took some fluky circumstances for a scoreless quarter, and we wouldn't bet on that happening again. However....

Why The Under Will Hit

The Under has hit in five of San Francisco's six games this season. This is the best defense in the NFL and they back it up week in and week out. Only two of their six games have combined for a total in the 40s.

San Francisco simply wants to win a low-scoring game. At home, they'll be comfortable and capable of doing just that. It's never easy to bet against Mahomes, but the conditions are right for a 49ers-friendly game script.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction

Lean: Chiefs -3

Given everything we know about both sides, this game will come down to which team can assert their dominance and play the brand of football they are most comfortable playing. At the end of the day, we trust Mahomes more than we trust the Niners' defense to execute on that.

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Written by

Greg Waddell

Creative Strategist

Greg Waddell is a self-proclaimed college basketball addict, with an affinity for parlays and fantasy football trades. He's based in Michigan, where he hasn't seen one of his professional sports teams win anything of any importance since he was in diapers.