Chicago White Sox Losing Streak: Predicting the Team's Next Win

Worst MLB season ever?

It just may be, for the Chicago White Sox that is.

They're so bad this year that you probably forgot about last year's 50-win effort from the Oakland A's. In the midst of a brutal 17-game losing streak, which beat their own franchise record of 14 from earlier this season, the White Sox's season has gone so far off the rails, they've manifested their own betting market.

With FanDuel offering odds on when the White Sox will even win their next game, things are looking bleak for a franchise that was supposed to be on ascension just a couple of seasons ago.

MORE: DimersBOT Picks Yield Over $5K in Home Run Parlay Wins

If we as baseball fans must endure the travesty that is the Chicago White Sox in 2024, then we may as well try to make some money off it (which you would be doing by simply betting against them all the time).

Our talented MLB data scientists have run a customized model to predict the likelihood of when Chicago will win their next game. Using projected starting pitchers and all of our pre-existing datapoints that go into the 1000s of simulations run on every single MLB game, we've broken it down for you here.

Ozuna ✅
Santander ✅
Pasquantino ✅

Cash the +666 parlay!

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Predicting the Next Win for the Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have already outdone themselves this year, setting two franchise records for longest losing streak in the same season.

They declined to trade Luis Robert Jr. and ace pitcher Garret Crochet at the trade deadline and now reports are that manager Pedro Grifol has openly placed the blame on the players. Deservedly or not, that's no way to rally a team together for a winning effort.

They've scored 2 runs or fewer in 10 games of this losing streak, outscored 102-37 in that span, though they've finally mustered 3+ runs in five straight. 

With all that said, here's our model's likelihood of the White Sox winning their next game over the next 10 days.

Value plays are noted in green and remember, these odds will change with every subsequent loss.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Most Likely Wins

Our model gives the White Sox the best chance to win their next game on August 2 on the road vs. the Twins. Minnesota's starter Joe Ryan has struggled in July, so is this when the White Sox finally get a win? At +260, you are getting some value, as the books imply just a 27.8% chance with those odds, compared to our 31% probability.

The second most-likely result also happens to be one of the best values as it's where we disagree the most with the sportsbooks. For the price, we predict the White Sox's losing streak to end at an even 20, with Chicago picking up its first win in a month by beating the Athletics in the opening game of their upcoming series. At +600 odds, the books say that's a 14.3% probability, but we give it 19%, almost a 5% edge.

Longshot Values

Beyond those favored bets from our model, we see an edge in the three smallest probabilities - the two Cubs games and against the Yankees, notably three games Chicago will play at home.

Keep in mind that the longer the odds, a 1% difference can make a big jump in value, so while the odds are very different, the Yankees games is only 1% off our model's projections, for example.

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