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CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Penn State vs. Michigan on October 15, 2022
The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Ann Arbor to take on the undefeated Michigan Wolverines at 12:00PM ET on Saturday, October 15. These are two of the best teams that the Big Ten has to offer and the winner of this one will undoubtedly be in the College Football Playoff picture later in the year.
Will the Nittany Lions pull off a surprising road upset? You might want to keep reading our Penn State vs. Michigan betting preview to find out.
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Penn State vs. Michigan Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 64% chance Michigan wins on the moneyline
- 55% probability Penn State covers the +7 spread
- 51% shot Penn State vs. Michigan goes Over 51 total points
For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Penn State vs. Michigan. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Penn State vs. Michigan Analysis
Why Penn State Will Cover The Spread
Penn State has already faced two tough road tests this season against Purdue and Auburn. The Nittany Lions won both of those games in hostile environments. Veteran quarterback Sean Clifford has plenty of experience playing on the road.
For Penn State to cover +7, the offensive line and defensive line need to play well. Michigan is really good in the trenches and Penn State needs to match the Wolverines physicality. Penn State is fifth in FBS in rushing defense. That rush defense has a tall task on Saturday as Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the best at his position in the country. For Penn State to cover, it needs to limit Corum and the Michigan run game. The DimersBOT likes Penn State +7. The front seven is good enough to hold Corum and force quarterback J.J. McCarthy to throw.
MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities
Why Michigan Will Cover The Spread
Michigan is one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation. Jim Harbaugh’s squad doesn’t have an obvious weakness. Michigan is one of two teams that rank top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. That other team is Alabama. Michigan is really good in the trenches. The offensive line does a great job in run blocking. That is evident as Corum is among the Heisman contenders from the running back position. The defense has 22 sacks this season, which is a concern for the weak, but improved, Penn State offensive line.
Michigan simply has to stick to its identity to cover the spread. The Wolverines are at their best when they control the clock and dominate the line of scrimmage. They certainly have the ability to do that. However, Penn State won’t back down. This is the first legit playoff contender that Michigan has played all season. We will know a lot more about Michigan after this game.
Why The Over Will Hit
Both Penn State and Michigan have the players to put up points. McCarthy leads FBS in completion percentage. Clifford can get the ball in his playmaker’s hands, and Penn State has a lot of those.
The point total is set at 51 here. Don’t expect this game to turn into a track meet, but 51 points is definitely an achievable total. If Penn State finds success running the football, it should be well balanced on offense. Michigan doesn’t have any major question marks on its offense, so points won’t be at a premium. However, points won’t be abundant either.
RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game
Why The Under Will Hit
There is a good chance that this game can turn into an old fashioned, physical Big Ten football game. Michigan can dominate the line of scrimmage. Penn State doesn’t have a great offensive line, so if Michigan can put pressure on Clifford by stopping the run game, the Nittany Lions might not score many points.
Don’t count out the Penn State defense either. The Nittany Lions are capable of holding Michigan’s offense. This game will come down to the trenches and the run game — a good combination for Under bettors.
Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction
Lean: Under
Both teams are solid all around. We think Michigan is better, but neither team has played a current Top 25 opponent. That’s why we like the point total play here with the Under. This game will be physical and low scoring.
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Brendan Moore is an expert in all things college football and basketball with bylines with Sidelines Sports Network and Spartans Illustrated, covering Michigan State collegiate sports.
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