CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Oklahoma State vs. TCU on October 15, 2022

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Written by Zachary Cohen
CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Oklahoma State vs. TCU on October 15, 2022

After surviving their road test against Kansas, the TCU Horned Frogs look to beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Saturday battle between two unbeaten programs. This one will kick off at 3:30PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Texas on Saturday, October 15. 

Which one of these teams will remain undefeated? You might want to keep reading our TCU vs. Oklahoma State betting preview to find out. 

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Oklahoma State vs. TCU Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

  • 60% chance TCU wins on the moneyline
  • 53% probability TCU covers the -3.5 spread
  • 53% shot Oklahoma State vs. TCU goes Under 68.5 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Oklahoma State vs. TCU. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

 

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Analysis

Why Oklahoma State Will Cover The Spread

Oklahoma State made a statement in a 36-25 road win over Baylor two weeks ago, and the team then followed it up with a 10-point win over Texas Tech last week. After losing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State in the offseason, the Pokes are back to winning games with an explosive offense. They're tied for third in the country at 46.4 points per game this year, and they'll feel good about their chances of winning a shootout with anybody. 

The Cowboys also completely dominated the Horned Frogs when these teams met last season, as Oklahoma State came away with a 63-17 win as an 11-point favorite in that meeting in Stillwater. This is a different TCU team now that Sonny Dykes is leading the charge, but that type of domination can be hard to get over in the follow-up matchup. 

The Pokes are also 6-0 against the spread in road games over the last two seasons. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Why TCU Will Cover The Spread

We mentioned that the Cowboys are tied for third in the nation in points per game this season and it's the Horned Frogs that they're tied with. TCU also happens to be the slightly better team on the defensive side of the ball, and home-field advantage is hard to ignore in this head-to-head series. The home team has won and covered in each of the last four meetings between these programs. 

The Horned Frogs are also coming off of a massive road win over the Jayhawks, so this program has to be brimming with confidence at the moment. Quarterback Max Duggan has taken this TCU team to another level since taking the starting job back, as he has thrown for 1,305 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception this year. Duggan has also added 204 yards and three scores on the ground. 

When Dykes has a quarterback that can make plays in both the passing game and the running game, his offense can be nearly impossible to stop. Also, over the last three years, TCU is 12-3 straight-up and 8-5-2 ATS when playing as a favorite. 


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Why The Over Will Hit

Oklahoma State and TCU average a combined total of 92.8 points per game, so it isn't crazy to expect some serious fireworks in this game. These are two offenses that are currently in the top five in the nation in scoring, with the Horned Frogs also being third in the country in total yards per game. Of course, these teams have also gotten some timely stops this year, which is why they're undefeated. But the offenses are the stars of the show for both teams. 

The Over has hit in each of the last five meetings between these teams, with last year's game seeing them combine to score 80 — but it was Oklahoma State that scored 63 of them. TCU should do a lot more to help Over bettors this time around. 

RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game

Why The Under Will Hit

These two teams both have electric offenses, but this is also a football game that could determine who will go on to win the Big 12 this year. With that in mind, there will be a laser-like focus from both schools coming into this one, and that should mean that it will play a lot like a postseason game. With that said, there could be some nastiness and a little extra adrenaline on the defensive side of the ball. 

Over the last three years, the Under is also 4-0 in the four games that the Pokes have played as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. 

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Prediction

Lean: TCU -3.5

TCU is in the midst of a special season in Dykes' first year with the Horned Frogs. And while this is definitely a really tough test for the group, we think home-field advantage will ultimately make the difference in this excellent matchup. 

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BEST BETS: Our Best CFB Bets for Saturday - COMING SOON

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Written by
Zachary Cohen

Zachary Cohen, a University of Wisconsin graduate, has written about betting and fantasy sports for prominent outlets like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel, and FOX Bet, with a strong focus on the NBA and college athletics.

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