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CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Mississippi State vs. Alabama on October 22, 2022
The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a loss to the Tennessee Volunteers last week, so Nick Saban's team will be looking to get back in the win column against a very good Mississippi State Bulldogs program at 7:00PM ET on Saturday, October 22.
Will the Crimson Tide get back on track here? You might want to keep reading our Mississippi State vs. Alabama betting preview to find out.
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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 88% chance Alabama wins on the moneyline
- No edge on either team to cover the spread
- No edge on Mississippi State vs. Alabama Over/Under 60.5
For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Mississippi State vs. Alabama. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Analysis
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread
Alabama’s secondary was exploited last week against the potent Tennessee passing attack. Tennessee’s use of stacked formations set them up with matchup advantages. If Mississippi State can do the same, the Bulldogs should find success through the air. It also helps that Air Raid mastermind Mike Leach draws up plays.
The spread in this game is a big one. If Mississippi State can simply exploit its matchup advantage with its passing attack, the Bulldogs can cover this spread even if Alabama puts up points on offense. However, Mississippi State has only allowed more than 30 points once, so don’t expect Alabama to have an easy time on offense.
This spread just seems very big for the way the Tide are playing right now.
MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread
Saban-coached teams tend to bounce back after a loss. There is no doubt that Alabama is going through a rough week of practice to prepare for the Bulldogs. Saban typically doesn’t lose two straight games.
Despite Mississippi State having a good defense, Alabama has so many offensive weapons. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs is tough to stop. Quarterback Bryce Young can also take control of the game whenever he wants.
Alabama minus the points isn’t an outlandish pick. If the pass rush can get home on Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers, the offense continues to roll, and Alabama limits the penalties, this could be a blowout.
Why The Over Will Hit
Both offenses should find success moving the football in this game. Mississippi State needs to expose the vulnerable Alabama secondary just like Tennessee did. Expect the Bulldogs offense to have a bounce back after a 17-point outing at Kentucky last Saturday. The Crimson Tide can move the football in so many different ways. It is super hard to stop the Alabama offense.
The point total is set at 60.5. The Bulldogs offense and Crimson Tide offense might be too good not to hit the Over.
RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game
Why The Under Will Hit
For the Under to hit, Alabama would have to force turnovers. That starts with the pass rush, led by Dallas Turner and Will Anderson. The Crimson Tide defense has 19 sacks this season, so this is a possibility.
Mississippi State would also need to find a way to apply constant pressure and get in the head of Young. Pass rush for both defenses will be key.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction
Lean: Over 60.5
We really like both teams to light up the scoreboard, especially after Mississippi State had a bad offensive performance last week. Give us the Over as the best bet.
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Brendan Moore is an expert in all things college football and basketball with bylines with Sidelines Sports Network and Spartans Illustrated, covering Michigan State collegiate sports.
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