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CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Louisiana vs. Marshall on October 12, 2022
It's not often that we get Wednesday night football and we're here to get you ready for a meeting between the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and Marshall Thundering Herd at 7:30PM ET on October 12. The Thundering Herd haven't lost a game at home this season, but the Ragin' Cajuns will be looking to pull the upset here.
Will home-field advantage make the difference in this one? You might want to keep reading our Louisiana vs. Marshall betting preview to find out.
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Louisiana vs. Marshall Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 69% chance Marshall wins on the moneyline
- 56% probability Louisiana covers the +8 spread
- 52% shot Louisiana vs. Marshall goes Under 47.5 total points
For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Louisiana vs. Marshall data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Louisiana vs. Marshall Analysis
Why Louisiana Will Cover The Spread
The Ragin' Cajuns have a rock-solid defense this season, as they're giving up only 20.4 points per game — which is good for 34th in all of FBS. With the Thundering Herd not being anything special on the offensive side of the ball, this could turn into something of a defensive slugfest. If that does end up being the case, you'll be happy to be on the team getting points. The fact that Louisiana is getting more than a touchdown is only an added bonus.
The DimersBOT really likes the road team's chances of covering in this one, and that's something that's hard to ignore. It's also hard not to factor in that the Ragin' Cajuns won by 15 when these teams played a neutral-site game in the New Orleans Bowl last year. Of course, Billy Napier is no longer leading Louisiana, but the returning players from the Ragin' Cajuns will feel good knowing that they have beaten this very opponent.
MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities
Why Marshall Will Cover The Spread
While Louisiana has a solid defense, Marshall has been even better on that side of the ball this season. The Thundering Herd are giving up just 16.2 points per game this season — and that's the 19th-best mark in all of college football. On top of that, Marshall is scoring more points per game than Louisiana by 3.9 points per game.
With the Thundering Herd being statistically better on both sides of the ball — and being the home team — it isn't hard to see why they're heavily favored. Also, you can't overlook the fact that Napier is no longer around for the Ragin' Cajuns. He was viewed as one of the best head coaches in the nation last year, which is why he ended up getting the Florida Gators job.
Running back Khalan Laborn has also been an absolute stud for Marshall all year. He's coming off a game in which he rushed for 191 yards and two scores, and he'll be looking to hit some holes in this one. Nobody in this game is as dangerous with the ball in their hands than he is.
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Why The Over Will Hit
Last year's matchup between these two saw the teams combining to score 57 points in a game with a closing total of 55.5. These teams might not be as explosive as they were one season ago, but this is a relatively low total and all it would take is a big play or two for the Over to be in play.
Also, in the last three seasons, the Over is 4-0 when Marshall is coming off a game in which the team won but failed to cover as a favorite.
RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game
Why The Under Will Hit
These are two teams that have been better defensively than they have been offensively, so it isn't hard to see why this one might go Under the total. Neither one of these programs has been all that explosive this year, and that isn't likely to change on a short week. These midweek games can be pretty sloppy, and that generally means low-scoring games.
The Under is also 15-4 in Louisiana games against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season, and it's also 6-1 in games in which the team has been an underdog in that span.
Louisiana vs. Marshall Prediction
Lean: Louisiana +8
Louisiana isn't a good football team this season, but this still isn't a game that's easy to call either way. And when in doubt, you're always better off taking the points. With that said, we're rolling with the road team on the short week.
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Zachary Cohen, a University of Wisconsin graduate, has written about betting and fantasy sports for prominent outlets like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel, and FOX Bet, with a strong focus on the NBA and college athletics.
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