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CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Baylor vs. West Virginia on October 13, 2022
The home team has won the last four meetings between the Baylor Bears and West Virginia Mountaineers, so the Bears might be on upset watch in Morgantown at 7:00PM ET on Thursday, October 13.
Will the Mountaineers earn a big win at home in this one? You might want to keep reading our Baylor vs. West Virginia betting preview to find out.
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Baylor vs. West Virginia Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 55% chance Baylor wins on the moneyline
- 58% probability West Virginia covers the +3.5 spread
- No edge on Baylor vs. West Virginia Over/Under 54.5 total points
For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Baylor vs. West Virginia. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Baylor vs. West Virginia Analysis
Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread
Baylor is coming off of a bad home loss to Oklahoma State last week, but the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the country. The Bears obviously had big expectations for this season after winning the Big 12 a year ago, but the reality is that there's no shame in losing a game like that to Oklahoma State. But the Bears are still a football team with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. and they won 45-20 when these teams met in Waco last year.
Even after giving up 36 points in the loss to Oklahoma State, Baylor is giving up only 20.6 points per game this year. This is a defense that really can lock in and play at a very high level, so head coach Dave Aranda will be feeling pretty good about his chances of slowing down West Virginia offensive coordinator Graham Harrell's Air Raid offense.
The Bears are also in a decent place on the offensive side of the ball, as Blake Shapen has been a breath of fresh air in the passing game. He'll look to be a spark against a West Virginia offense that has allowed at least 300 passing yards on two occasions this year. The Bears are also 11-3 straight-up and 8-6 against the spread as favorites under Aranda.
MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities
Why West Virginia Will Cover The Spread
While logic might say that this is a game in which Baylor should win, you can just as easily throw that out here. The Mountaineers are going to have an absurd home-field advantage with this being a Thursday night home game, and they're now facing a Bears team that has to be feeling pretty down after a loss to the Cowboys. It might not have been a disappointing loss on its own, but Baylor's shot at doing special things this year is now gone.
The Mountaineers also happen to possess an offense that can give the Bears trouble. Baylor was unable to slow down Oklahoma State's running game last week, giving up 166 yards in the loss. The Bears hadn't given up more than 87 in a single game before that. Now, the team is tasked with slowing down a Mountaineers offense that has rushed for at least 200 yards in a game twice this season.
West Virginia should be able to effectively move the ball in this game, meaning the team has a great shot at keeping this one close.
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Why The Over Will Hit
After a combined 55 points were scored in Baylor's meeting with Iowa State on September 24, the Bears and Cowboys combined to put up 61 last week. This Baylor team likes to consider itself a defensive-minded group, but the Bears have scored at least 31 points in three of their five games this year. They can be extremely explosive when they need to be, and the Mountaineers also have a high-flying offense.
Last year, these two combined to score 65 points to easily go Over the 45.5-point total on the game. The Over has now hit in three of the last five games these two have played.
RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game
Why The Under Will Hit
The point total in this game might seem somewhat low for two squads that have been involved in some shootouts lately, but both programs are actually being led by defensive-minded head coaches. That's something that is always important, as these teams prefer not to be involved in high-scoring games — even if West Virginia did hire one of the brightest offensive minds in the game as an offensive coordinator in the offseason.
The Under has now hit in each of the last two games that the Mountaineers have played, and they'll be extra prepared to defend in this one after having had a bye week last week.
Baylor vs. West Virginia Prediction
Lean: Mountaineers +3.5
The Bears are probably crushed after suffering their second loss of the season so early in the year, and they now have to play a game in a tough road setting. We think West Virginia keeps this one close and potentially even wins it.
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Zachary Cohen, a University of Wisconsin graduate, has written about betting and fantasy sports for prominent outlets like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel, and FOX Bet, with a strong focus on the NBA and college athletics.
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