CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Alabama vs. Tennessee on October 15, 2022

Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 2:55PM | First published: Oct 12, 2022, 6:17PM

Written by Brendan Moore, Contributor

CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Alabama vs. Tennessee on October 15, 2022

In what might be the biggest game of the college football season, the Alabama Crimson Tide face the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville at 3:30PM ET on Saturday, October 15. These teams are both unbeaten and the winner of this massive SEC showdown will be feeling really good about its College Football Playoff prospects.

Which one of these teams will stay unbeaten? You might want to keep reading our Alabama vs. Tennessee betting preview to find out.

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Alabama vs. Tennessee Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

65% chance Alabama wins on the moneyline
53% probability Alabama covers the -7.5 spread
51% shot Alabama vs. Tennessee goes Over 66 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Alabama vs. Tennessee. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Alabama vs. Tennessee Analysis

Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread

Alabama narrowly pulled out a win against Texas A&M last Saturday. Part of that was due to the turnovers committed by the Alabama offense and backup quarterback Jalen Milroe. For the Tide to win this game comfortably, Bryce Young will have to play. Young was in pads on the sideline during Alabama’s previous game against Texas A&M, so it is certainly not out of the question.

Nick Saban’s team is one of the most well-rounded squads in the country. The Crimson Tide are one of two teams that rank in the top 10 in total offense and total defense. The main concern for Alabama on the defensive side is Hendon Hooker and the Tennessee pass game. However, the Tide have one of the best pass-rush units in the SEC. They have 18 total sacks on the season. Also, Alabama will have to attack the Tennessee secondary, which is the weakness of the Volunteers defense. That falls on Bryce Young and the Alabama wideouts.

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread

Tennessee is number one in the nation in total offense. The Volunteers average 547.8 yards of offense per game. Hooker is a Heisman contender. He has thrown for 1,432 yards, 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. Star wide receiver Cedric Tillman has been out with an injury recently, which makes Hooker’s stats even more impressive. Tillman is expected to be back for this game.

The run game has been really good this season for Tennessee. The Volunteers rank 23rd in FBS in rushing offense. Alabama’s defense has to deal with a well-balanced, explosive offense. This might be the Tide’s toughest test of the season, especially defensively. If Milroe plays for Alabama, Tennessee will have a good chance to win this game outright.

Why The Over Will Hit

If Alabama can find success in the pass game, the Tide will be able to put up points. Tennessee doesn’t exactly have a great pass defense. We know the Volunteers will score, but will they be able to score at will like they did against LSU? Alabama’s defense will be tested. This game has the possibility of turning into a track meet, and that favors Tennessee.

The point total in this one is in the high 60's. While that is a lot of points for a high stakes game in a tough environment, it is a reasonable total. With how many offensive weapons both teams have, we wouldn’t be shocked to see this exceed 70 points.

Why The Under Will Hit

There is no doubt that Neyland Stadium will be electric. This game has national title implications. The atmosphere in Knoxville will be hostile for Alabama. The Tide haven’t exactly had a ton of success on the road for their standards. Alabama needed a Young masterclass to simply beat Texas on the road.

Don’t be shocked if Alabama comes out flat, especially if Young sits out. The point total is at 66, which is a lot. While Tennessee has an elite offense, Alabama can limit that offense with its elite pass rush.

Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction

Lean: Tennessee +7.5

We don’t have a strong lean on the point total, so we will take our chances with the spread. If Milroe starts this game for Alabama, we fully expect Tennessee to keep this close and even win this game outright. If Young starts, we still expect this game to be close. Young being on the field could be the difference between an Alabama win and loss, but whichever QB starts for Alabama, we like Tennessee to cover.

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Written by

Brendan Moore

Contributor

Brendan Moore is an expert in all things college football and basketball with bylines with Sidelines Sports Network and Spartans Illustrated, covering Michigan State collegiate sports.