CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Utah State vs. BYU on September 29, 2022

The Utah State Aggies turned in a magical season a year ago, but they head into a Thursday night meeting with the BYU Cougars after having lost three games in a row. Will Blake Anderson's squad find a way to keep things competitive when these teams clash at LaVell Edwards Stadium at 8:00PM ET on September 29? 

You might want to keep reading our Utah State vs. BYU betting preview to find out how we think this one will shake out. 

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Utah State vs. BYU Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 92% chance BYU wins on the money line
• 52% chance Utah State cover the +24 spread
• 59% chance Utah State vs. BYU goes Under 61.5 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Utah State vs. BYU data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Utah State vs. BYU Analysis

The Spread

Last year, BYU earned a 34-20 win over Utah State as a 9-point road favorite, and that was an Aggies team that lost only one other game all year. Utah State was the Mountain West champion a year ago and won a total of 11 games on the season. The point here is that the Aggies had a very good squad a year ago, but the same certainly can't be said about this current team. 

After looking rather unspectacular in a win over the UConn Huskies in the season opener, Utah State has now lost three games in a row. The last two were especially pathetic, with the Aggies losing by a combined 38 points against Weber State and UNLV. Now, Utah State has to go on the road against a BYU team that is easily a top-10 team in the country. 

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It's just very hard to see how the Aggies will find a way to keep this game even remotely close. Quarterback Logan Bonner hasn't had a good season, but he is the leader of this team and the only stable presence Utah State has. But he'll actually be out for this one and that makes for one heck of a task for backup Cooper Legas. He is not an experienced player whatsoever, and this is going to be a tough road environment. 

On the other side of the ball, there's just nothing this broken Aggies defense can do to stop the Cougars. Utah State has allowed at least 34 points in each of its last three games and now faces a BYU offense that has one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation in Jaren Hall. This just has beatdown written all over it, and it doesn't hurt that the Cougars are 6-3 against the spread as favorites of 21.5 to 31 points since Kalani Sitake became the team's head coach. He knows how to get his team motivated, even in games where it can be easy to press the snooze button.  

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The Over/Under

This is a game in which we expect the BYU offense to look unstoppable. The Cougars can use a big performance to show that they're better than they've been the last two weeks, and they have the talent to give the Aggies defense a lot of problems. This team has also been explosive when playing against lousy competition in the past, as the Over is 4-1 in the five games BYU has played against teams with winning percentages of 25% or worse under Sitake. 

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You should expect the Cougars to score at least 45 or so points in this one, which would then mean that the Aggies don't have to do much in order to help Over bettors cash. 

The Over has also hit in three of the five games that the Aggies have played as road underdogs under Anderson.

Utah State vs. BYU Best Bet

BYU -24

Not only are the Cougars trustworthy when playing as big favorites, but they are also 12-9 ATS when facing Mountain West opponents and 6-3 ATS when coming off a home no-cover in which they won as a favorite under Sitake. This is just a football team that will be looking to go out and prove a point against somebody, and the Aggies happen to be the perfect punching bag right now. 

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