CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Tulane vs. Houston on September 30, 2022

After a disappointing loss to Southern Mississippi last week, the Tulane Green Wave will look to get back on track in a Friday night meeting with a struggling Houston Cougars team. This one will kick off at 7:00PM ET on Friday, September 30, and this is a game that could have some late-season implications in the American Athletic Conference.

Will Willie Fritz's team get back on track with a solid road performance? You might want to keep reading our Tulane vs. Houston betting preview to find out. 

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Tulane vs. Houston Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 60% chance Houston wins on the money line
• 56% chance Houston covers the -2.5 spread
• No edge on Tulane vs. Houston Over/Under 54.5 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Tulane vs. Houston data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Tulane vs. Houston Analysis

The Spread

Tulane had a great chance to open the season with a 4-0 record, but the team was upset at home by Southern Miss last week. That had to be a really disappointing defeat for Fritz's group, but he's an experienced head coach and he knows the importance of making sure his guys are ready to go on Friday.

The only thing worse than letting that game slip away would be letting the emotional hangover carry over into a road game against a conference opponent. We expect the Green Wave to shake it off and turn in a great week of preparation for the Cougars. But we don't expect the same out of Houston. 

Much like Fritz, Cougars head coach Dana Holgorsen has been around the block. But the Houston coach isn't as uplifting of a presence and he absolutely ripped into his team after a 34-27 win over Rice. It's understandable to want your team to perform better in a game, but being as negative as he was after a victory just felt odd. Holgorsen said that he is tired of trying to get through to his team, which is a bizarre choice of words for a man that is hired to get through to his team. It'll be interesting to see how the Cougars respond to his post-game antics, but it wouldn't be surprising if it doesn't resonate the way he thinks it will. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

The Green Wave also happen to have an offense that can really give the Cougars trouble. Houston is allowing 35.8 points per game this season, and the group has been picked apart in both the running game and passing game. Tulane just so happens to be capable of getting it going with both. 

Quarterback Michael Pratt definitely didn't play his best game against Southern Miss last week, but he has still thrown for 905 yards with seven touchdowns and only three picks this year. And not only does he have a decent ability to throw the football, but he can also take off and use his legs. He has actually rushed for at least 55 yards in three of the four games Tulane has played thus far. We don't think he's a better quarterback than Houston's Clayton Tune, but it sure wouldn't be surprising if he held his own as a passer here. The two have nearly identical numbers on the season, but it'd be very hard for the Cougars to win this game if Tune doesn't significantly outperform Pratt. 

Tulane is arguably better in the running game than Houston, as junior Tyjae Spears is a playmaker all over the field — he had five catches for 74 yards last week, in addition to his 114 yards and two touchdowns rushing. And the Green Wave are definitely the better defensive team, making it a bit unclear where the Cougars really have an edge here. 

Overcoming Houston's home-field advantage might be the biggest challenge for Tulane, but the Green Wave are the better-coached team and should win this game outright.  

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The Over/Under

Houston has gone Over the total in all four of its games this season, but Tulane has only gone Over in one of its four. With that said, one of these two squads will have to impose their will on the game. We just think it'll ultimately be the Green Wave, who are going to lean run-heavy in an effort to not let Holgorsen's offense find its rhythm. 

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If Tulane can run the ball as well as we think it can, the Green Wave should do a good job of eating the clock. We also think they'll have some success on the defensive side of the ball, as we've now seen them do it against much better teams than this. Just look at Tulane's 17-10 win over the Kansas State Wildcats a few weeks ago. 

Betting the Under is really never fun, as the Over always seems like it has a chance to hit. But we just think this game is more likely to be a bit of a dud in the scoring department. However, we're more comfortable in our side here.

Tulane vs. Houston Best Bet

Green Wave +3 

Under Fritz, Tulane is 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread when coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. While a loss like the one the Green Wave suffered last week would derail most teams, we don't expect this group to get too down here. We like Tulane with the points and we also think backing the Wave to roll outright is a good move. 

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