CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Texas A&M vs. Alabama on October 8, 2022

The Alabama Crimson Tide will be looking to improve to 6-0 when they host a Texas A&M Aggies team that beat them last season. This game is scheduled to begin at 8:00PM ET on Saturday, October 8, and revenge will definitely be on the mind of Nick Saban and Co. This is, however, an Aggies team that has a lot of talent, and the Tide are favored by more than three touchdowns.  

Will Saban's group find a way to cover this massive spread? You might want to keep reading our Texas A&M vs. Alabama betting preview to find out. 

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Texas A&M vs. Alabama Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 94% chance Alabama wins on the moneyline
• 53% probability Texas A&M covers the +24 spread
• 54% shot Texas A&M vs. Alabama goes Over 52 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Texas A&M vs. Alabama data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Analysis

The Spread

Jimbo Fisher's Aggies have only been underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points once in his time with the program and his team covered in that game. Texas A&M is also 4-1 against the spread in road games with totals of 49.5 to 56 points, and the team is 5-1 ATS when coming off a game in which it gave up 325 or more passing yards in its previous game. That last trend is telling because it shows that Fisher knows how to get to his group after a bad defensive performance. 

Of course, Fisher can get to the Aggies all he wants and it still won't have much of a chance of beating the Crimson Tide outright. But Texas A&M really shouldn't be losing to Alabama by as many points as this. Even with an offense that has been struggling to put up points this year, you'd have to think that the Aggies defense will be jacked up for this one and won't let it get too far out of hand. Alabama star Bryce Young also happens to be questionable for this game, and it's hard to see the Tide coming close to covering if he doesn't end up playing. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

A lot currently separates these two teams and the absence of Ainias Smith, who is out for the season after getting ankle surgery, won't help Texas A&M. But this just feels like way too big of a spread for an Aggies team that will be motivated to play better after last week's embarrassment of a performance against Mississippi State. 

Even with Max Johnson out, A&M should be able to score just enough points to cover. 

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The Over/Under

The Aggies might have given up 42 points last week, but they had given up 21 or fewer in each of their previous four games. This is a team that is very talented on the defensive side of the ball and looking ahead to this meeting with Alabama likely harmed A&M in its loss to Mississippi State. We expect this group to do a much better job of staying focused on key assignments against Alabama, and that makes the Under look like a great play. 

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We also know that the Aggies aren't going to light it up in this game, as their offense just isn't even built to do anything like that. Sure, A&M put up 41 points in last year's upset of Alabama, but that's likely not going to happen again. These teams are both going to be trying to run the football — especially if Young misses this game for the Tide — and this one should end up being pretty low scoring. 

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Best Bet

Texas A&M +24

The Crimson Tide really shouldn't have much trouble winning this game, but a spread as big as this one is disrespectful to an Aggies team that is a lot better than it showed last week. We're taking the points and not bothering to watch. It could be ugly watching this Texas A&M offense against Saban's defense. 

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