CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For SMU vs. UCF on October 5, 2022

Due to some hurricane rescheduling, college football fans will get some Wednesday night action between the SMU Mustangs and UCF Knights. This one will kick off at 7:00PM ET on October 5, when bettors will have the opportunity to get themselves loose before the real week begins on Thursday. 

Will the Knights improve to 4-1 with a win at The Bounce House? You might want to keep reading our SMU vs. UCF betting preview to find out. 

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SMU vs. UCF Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 62% chance UCF wins on the moneyline
• 55% probability UCF covers the -3 spread
• 53% shot SMU vs. UCF goes Under 65.5 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our SMU vs. UCF data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

SMU vs. UCF Analysis

The Spread

There's nothing like Wednesday night college football, especially when it's a rare midweek meeting between two AAC schools and not two MAC schools. This should be a really fun game to watch, with two offenses that have the ability to get cooking. The Mustangs offense is really the one to watch here, as the team is scoring 38.5 points per game this season. 

The SMU passing game is just one that can be really tough to stop, as Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 1,385 yards with 12 touchdowns and only five picks this year. Last season, he threw for 3,628 yards with 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

We don't foresee UCF having much of an answer for him defensively, especially considering the Mustangs earned a 55-28 win over the Knights last year. Mordecai threw for 377 yards with three touchdowns in that game, and it's just hard to see the loss of head coach Sonny Dykes to TCU being enough for him not to pick UCF apart again. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

UCF also wasn't able to stop the SMU ground game in last year's meeting, as the Mustangs rushed for 241 yards in that game. Of course, playing this game in Orlando gives the Knights a little boost, but this year's UCF team is worse than last year's. And we already saw a mediocre Louisville Cardinals team roll into The Bounce House and earn a win in a night game. 

It should also be noted that UCF is just 4-6 against the spread when playing as a home favorite under Gus Malzahn. The Knights are also 2-6 ATS in conference games with Malzahn running the show, and those are two trends that should have you nervous about backing UCF here. We just think this is a good spot for SMU, which looks primed to not only cover but also win outright. We're not worried about the players that decided to sit out the season earlier in the week. 

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The Over/Under

Last year, these teams combined to score 83 points when they met in Texas, and they have combined to score an average of 68.7 points per game in their three meetings since the 2017 season. These are just two programs that can really score in a hurry, which makes it hard to believe that this won't turn into a shootout on Wednesday. 

RELATED: Full betting previews for every CFB game

SMU is coming off a game in which it combined to score 76 points with TCU, and this one could feature a similar amount of scoring. Also, the Over is 9-7 in games that UCF has played against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season. 

SMU vs. UCF Best Bet

Over 65.5

We wouldn't hate it if you ended up taking SMU in this game, but our favorite bet is definitely on the Over. This game has shootout written all over it, especially with it being an evening game that everybody will be watching. These offensive players will want to show out. 

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