CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Oklahoma State vs. Baylor on October 1, 2022

The Baylor Bears are small home favorites over the undefeated Oklahoma State Cowboys in their meeting at McLane Stadium at 3:30PM ET on Saturday, October 1. These are two teams that have the ability to win the Big 12 this year, so this is a very important match-up. 

Will the Bears deal the Cowboys their first loss of the season? You might want to keep reading our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor betting preview to find out. 

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Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 58% chance Baylor wins on the money line
• 56% probability Baylor covers the -2.5 spread
• 52% shot Oklahoma State vs. Baylor goes Under 56.5 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Analysis

The Spread

Baylor already has a loss on its resume this season, but that came on the road against a very good BYU Cougars team. And that was a game that the Bears had a real chance of winning, as they ended up falling in double overtime in that one. Now, Baylor probably has to win out in order to achieve its pre-season goals, but that certainly isn't out of the question. This meeting with the Cowboys isn't going to be an easy one, but it's absolutely a game in which the Bears should prevail. 

Head coach Dave Aranda's team has been impossible to run against this season, which means it'll be hard for Oklahoma State to get its offense going on the ground. The most amount of rushing yards that the Bears have allowed this season is 87, and it's not likely that they'll allow themselves to get shredded on the ground in a home game. 

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If the Cowboys can't run the ball effectively in this game, it's not likely that they'll find a way to win. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has looked outstanding as a passer early in the season, but he hasn't yet faced a secondary as good as Baylor's. The Bears also had Sanders' number last year, as he threw for just one touchdown with an embarrassing seven interceptions in two meetings with Baylor. As a senior, he should be a bit sharper this time around, but it's hard to expect him to light it up. His legs have always been a stronger asset than his arm. 

The Bears also happen to have an improved passing game of their own, as Blake Shapen has thrown for 773 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception this year. The sophomore was remarkable in a road win over the Iowa State Cyclones last week, throwing for 238 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. With that in mind, he should be extremely confident heading into a meeting with this Oklahoma State defense.

It'll be interesting to see how the Pokes defense holds up against a good offense, as the team did lose defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State in the offseason. That's a big loss and we expect it to be a factor in this game, with Oklahoma State potentially being unable to come up with timely stops. We're rolling with the Bears and not thinking twice about it. 

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The Over/Under

It can be easy to talk yourself into any Oklahoma State Over, but this just really isn't the game to do it. While the Pokes have been explosive in the passing game to start the year, we don't see Sanders continuing to light it up with his arm this season. And we expect this to be the game in which he starts to struggle a bit. 

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Without Oklahoma State going crazy in the running game, it's just hard to see how this game would go Over the total. Baylor will definitely allow Shapen to take some shots down the field, but the Bears are going to run the football and try to let their defense win this game for them. 

This just seems like a game where the winner will score something like 28 or points, which would be great for the Under.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Best Bet

Baylor -2.5

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Baylor is 11-3 against the spread when facing teams that complete at least 62% of their passes. We think that continues here, with the Bears finding a way to slow down the red-hot Cowboys passing game. Not only do we think Baylor wins this game, but we don't think it'll be as close as this spread suggests. 

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