CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Ohio State vs. Michigan State on October 8, 2022

The Michigan State Spartans will be hoping to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year when they host the Ohio State Buckeyes at 4:00PM ET on Saturday, October 8. This has been a down year for Mel Tucker and Co., but his group will be fired up to play against the best the Big Ten has to offer. 

Will the Spartans find a way to keep things close against the Buckeyes? You might want to keep reading our Ohio State vs. Michigan State betting preview to find out. 

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 93% chance Ohio State wins on the moneyline
• 51% probability Michigan State covers the +27 spread
• 55% shot Ohio State vs. Michigan State goes Under 65 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Ohio State vs. Michigan State data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Analysis

The Spread

In the preseason, Ohio State was ranked alongside Georgia and Alabama as one of the best teams in FBS. The Buckeyes performance up until now has shown exactly why. The Buckeyes are one of the most balanced teams you will find in the country. Ohio State is 11th in FBS in total defense and third in FBS in total offense. 

The offense is the main talking point of this team. Heisman contender quarterback C.J. Stroud has already thrown for 18 touchdowns this season. In this matchup last season, Stroud dotted up the Spartan defense for 432 yards and six touchdowns. The Michigan State secondary hasn’t improved much since last year. Wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. will all have major matchup advantages out wide. The Spartan secondary needs a lot of help from the pass rush to force Stroud into making mistakes. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Ohio State’s defense is massively improved under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes are top 10 in passing defense and 33rd in rushing defense. The only thing that they might need to improve on is taking the ball away. Ohio State has forced only five turnovers in five games this season. 

The key for Michigan State in this game is to get the run game going. The Spartans have struggled in the last three games to run the football. They are 99th in FBS in rushing offense. Quarterback Payton Thorne has also struggled a bit throwing the football. Michigan State has good receivers, but Thorne needs to be more accurate. The offensive line is another area of concern for Michigan State, as it has allowed six sacks this season.

The spread for this matchup is set at -27 in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes certainly have the ability to break this game wide open similar to last season. Stroud is going to sling the ball all over the yard. The Michigan State defense simply won’t have an answer for all the skill that Ohio State possesses on offense. For all of those reasons, we like Ohio State minus the points.

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The Over/Under

What we do know about this game is that Ohio State will score. There is not a reasonable scenario in which the Buckeyes don’t put up really good offensive numbers considering how bad the Spartans defense has been in the past few games. The question here is if Michigan State can put up points. The Spartans have only scored 20 points in their last two games. Minnesota practically shut down the Spartan offense, and Ohio State’s defense is just as good, if not better, than Minnesota’s defense. 

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The point total in this is set at 65. We like the Under and the DimersBOT agrees. We don’t think Michigan State has what it takes offensively to put points on the board. 

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Best Bet

Ohio State -27

While we like both the Under and Ohio State -27 in this game, we feel more confident in Ohio State covering. This game could get ugly fast. We simply don’t see a scenario in which Michigan State holds Ohio State’s offense in check. 

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