CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Michigan vs. Iowa on October 1, 2022

The Iowa Hawkeyes will be looking to pull off a big upset when the team hosts the Michigan Wolverines at Kinnick Stadium at 12:00PM ET on Saturday, October 1. While Iowa has looked rather miserable at times this season, anything can happen when playing at home in the Big Ten. That makes this a must-watch game for all college football fans. 

Will the Hawkeyes find a way to keep this game close against the Wolverines? You might want to keep reading our Michigan vs. Iowa betting preview to find out. 

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Michigan vs. Iowa Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 80% chance Michigan wins on the money line
• 51% probability Iowa covers +11 points spread
• 59% shot Michigan vs. Iowa goes Over 42 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Michigan vs. Iowa data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Michigan vs. Iowa Analysis

The Spread

Michigan was an elite team just one season ago, yet we haven't exactly seen the best of the Wolverines this season. While they're 4-0 and have earned some impressive blowout victories, they are just 1-2 against the spread in their last three games. And as ridiculous as this might sound, great teams generally do handle their business and cover as heavy favorites. 

Last week's 34-27 win over Maryland exposed this Michigan team a bit, as the Terps threw for 269 yards and added another 128 on the ground. It was a sloppy defensive performance from Jim Harbaugh's team, and it's one that should give the Hawkeyes some hope. Iowa has one of the worst offenses in college football this year, but the team has found some success on the ground over the last two weeks. If the Hawkeyes can be decent in the running game, it'll be hard for them not to cover at home here. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

While it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which quarterback Spencer Petras has a big game through the air, it really shouldn't take more than 14 or so points for Iowa to cover in this game. That's because the Hawkeyes defense is every bit as good as the offense is bad. No team in college football is giving up fewer than the 5.8 points per game that Iowa is allowing this year, and the Hawkeyes are also sixth in the nation in yards per game allowed. 

With Iowa being such a stout defensive team, it's just tough to ask Michigan to win this game by double digits on the road — especially when the team hasn't exactly had the best quarterback play. The Wolverines like to run the ball down the throats of their opponents, but doing so will be very difficult against a Hawkeyes team that is allowing only 73.0 rushing yards per game. 

We're rolling with Iowa with the points here and just hoping that the Hawkeyes get lucky and find the end zone multiple times. 

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The Over/Under

The Under had hit in each of Iowa's three games before the team faced Rutgers in a game with a total of 35. The oddsmakers finally found a number low enough for the Hawkeyes to hit, with them going Over in a 27-10 win over the Scarlet Knights. Now, this game is set at 42 and it feels a little too high, even for a Wolverines team that has been scoring pretty regularly. 

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While Michigan's offense has been explosive this season, the team has been doing most of its damage in the running game. Iowa just isn't going to allow that in Kinnick Stadium, so we definitely like the Under here.

Michigan vs. Iowa Best Bet

Iowa +11 

Under head coach Kirk Ferentz, Iowa is 5-1 against the spread as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. The Hawkeyes are also 24-7 ATS when facing teams that rush for 230 or more yards per game in that span. They just know how to halt an elite rushing offense and that's why we're backing them as double-digit home underdogs. 

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