CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Houston vs. Memphis on October 7, 2022

The Houston Cougars have lost three of their last four games and now have a tough road matchup with the red-hot Memphis Tigers on Friday, October 7 at 7:30PM ET. This game will be played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, where a wild Memphis student section will be hoping to help its team move to 5-1 on the season. 

Will the Tigers stay hot with a win over a struggling Cougars squad? You might want to keep reading our Houston vs. Memphis betting preview to find out. 

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Houston vs. Memphis Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 55% chance Memphis wins on the moneyline
• 55% probability Houston covers the +3 spread
• 54% shot Houston vs. Memphis goes Over 57 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Houston vs. Memphis data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Houston vs. Memphis Analysis

The Spread

Houston is coming off of a brutal home loss to a Tulane team that was down to its third-string quarterback last week. The Cougars have now lost three of their last four games and head coach Dana Holgorsen's seat is getting hotter and hotter. The former West Virginia coach called out his team ahead of that loss to Tulane, and he threw several fits on the sidelines towards the end of that one. Will his players continue to play hard for him? We have our doubts. 

The Cougars also have to be somewhat low in confidence right now, as their defense wasn't able to stop the run at all last week — despite knowing that the Green Wave had every intention to run it regularly. Now, Houston is tasked with stopping a Memphis offense that is averaging 172.0 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. We just don't see the Cougars finding a way to do that. 

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Houston's offense also isn't good enough to make up for its disastrous defense right now. Clayton Tune was expected to make a big leap and turn in a career year this season, but he has thrown for only six touchdowns over the last four weeks. The Cougars passing game just lacks the explosion it had one year ago, and the Tigers should have the more dangerous unit on that side of the ball on Friday. 

Memphis also has the advantage defensively and you can amplify that by factoring in the crowd noise. The Tigers fanbase will be fired up for this evening game, as it's one in which Memphis can really improve its positioning in the American Athletic Conference. 

All in all, we just don't see any area in which Houston has a clear advantage over Memphis, and the Tigers are definitely in better spirits than their opponents. With that said, we're backing Memphis to cover this small spread at home. 

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The Over/Under

While these are two programs with reputations as fielding high-scoring offenses, that doesn't necessarily mean these two will end up in a shootout on Friday. In fact, these coaching staffs might know their opponents too well for that, which will make it harder on both offensive units to score. We also just saw Memphis play a game in which it earned a 24-3 win, which isn't exactly a score you get from a high-flying squad. 

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The Under has also hit in two meetings between these teams in a row, with these schools combining to score only 44 points in last year's game in Houston. This one might not end up being an easy winner, but 57 does seem like a high number when you consider that both of these teams will be trying to run the ball rather often. We'd suggest playing the Under if you want to bet on the total at all. 

Houston vs. Memphis Best Bet

Memphis -3

Since the start of the 2015-16 season, Memphis is 6-1 against the spread against Houston. These teams also happen to be in completely different places mentally. With the Cougars spiraling, it's just hard not to back the Tigers here. Houston is also 6-9 ATS when coming off a home game under Holgorsen. 

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