CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Florida vs. Tennessee on September 24, 2022

The Florida Gators haven't looked good since their opening-week upset over the Utah Utes, but the Gators are still a threat to deal the Tennessee Volunteers their first loss of the season when the two meet at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee at 3:30PM ET on Saturday, September 24.

Will the Vols move to 4-0 with a win over a solid Gators squad? You might want to keep reading our Florida vs. Tennessee to find out. 

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Florida vs. Tennessee Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 66% chance Tennessee win on the money line
• 56% chance Florida cover the +10.5 spread
• 53% Florida vs. Tennessee goes Under 62 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Florida vs. Tennessee data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Florida vs. Tennessee Analysis

The Spread

Tennessee’s high-flying offense is averaging 52 points per game this season. A lot of those points are due to the passing game. Hendon Hooker is among the top quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 844 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Hooker has two reliable weapons on the outside in Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman that he can rely on. Florida will need to limit Hooker in the pass game if the Gators want a shot at winning outright. But Hooker can also run, so he poses a huge threat for his opponents every week.

If Florida can limit Tennessee’s passing attack, the Volunteers will need to have a solid run game. The Tennessee rushing attack is where the question marks lie on this offense. Tennessee’s toughest game up until this point was at Pittsburgh. The Volunteers only had 91 rushing yards on 35 attempts. If Florida can limit Hooker through the air, the Gators can find success defensively. But their run defense will need to improve after allowing an average of 195 rushing yards per game so far this season.

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Florida’s offense has been one dimensional as of late. Many fans have complained about the lack of playmaking opportunities drawn up for quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Gators quarterback has struggled throwing the football this season. He has thrown for 423 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He’s only completing passes at a 53.2-percent mark. However, Richardson is elite when he tucks and runs. That’s the part of Richardson’s game that the Tennessee defense must worry about.

Florida will want to slow the game down and run the football. The Gators are one of the best in the SEC in doing that. That is what Billy Napier wants the identity of his Florida program to be. Look for Montrell Johnson Jr. to get a lot of touches. He is averaging 9.6 yards per carry so far this season.

The spread for this game is at Tennessee -10.5. The environment will be tough for Florida. Neyland Stadium is one of the loudest stadiums in college football. Add on the excitement around the Tennessee program and it becomes even tougher. But the DimersBOT likes Florida to cover the spread and we agree. The Gators will have their way on the ground, control the clock and keep it close.

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The Over/Under

The point total for this game is rather high considering the loud environment. There could be some nerves early on for Florida due to the noise, but also for Tennessee due to the expectations. The Volunteers haven’t dealt with this much buzz in years. 

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We like the Under and the DimersBOT agrees. If Florida keeps it close, it will be because it finds success running the football. That will chew the clock down and keep the ball out of Hooker’s hands. Since we like Florida to keep it close, the Under seems like the logical pick here.

Florida vs. Tennessee Best Bet

Florida +10.5

The best bet for this game is Florida to cover. The Gators will keep this game close with the overall playmaking ability of Richardson and Johnson Jr. We still like the Volunteers to win outright, but don’t sleep on Napier’s team to put up a fight.

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