CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Baylor vs. Iowa State on September 24, 2022

The undefeated Iowa State Cyclones will be hoping to make a statement with a win over the Baylor Bears at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa at 12:00PM ET on Saturday, September 24. However, doing so isn't going to be easy for Matt Campbell's group, which isn't as talented as it has been in recent years. 

Will the Cyclones beat a Bears team that was viewed as one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year? You might want to keep reading our Baylor vs. Iowa State to find out. 

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Baylor vs. Iowa State Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 60% chance Iowa State wins on the money line
• 53% chance Iowa State covers the -3 spread
• 58% Baylor vs. Iowa State goes Over 45 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Baylor vs. Iowa State data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Baylor vs. Iowa State Analysis

The Spread

Iowa State has been one of the most surprising teams in the Big 12 this season. The Cyclones lost a lot of talent from last year to the NFL, with Breece Hall, Brock Purdy and Charlie Kolar all departing. But quarterback Hunter Dekkers has burst onto the scene in Ames. He’s thrown for 745 yards and eight touchdowns in three games.

Dekkers is accurate with the football, but he also has the ability to throw downfield. And running back Jirehl Brock is a guy to watch for in the run game. He is averaging 5.6 yards per carry so far this season. The Iowa State offense is well balanced and should be able to find success here. 

Baylor’s defense has been performing at a high level, which isn't a surprise considering head coach Dave Aranda is one of the best defensive coaches on the planet. The Bears allow only 84.0 rushing yards per game and the team held BYU to 83 rushing yards, which says a lot about the run defense. Iowa State will likely need to find success throwing the football to win this game.

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Baylor’s offense is also balanced. Blake Shapen is its starting quarterback and he only has one turnover on the season. Expect Shapen to take good care of the football and not put it in harm's way.

The offensive line for Baylor was painted as one of its strengths in the preseason. That position group has given up six sacks this season, so it’s a question mark right now. The Bears line needs to be wary of Iowa State defensive end Will McDonald IV. McDonald is arguably the best player on the Cyclones defense.

Iowa State’s defense has been really good against the run. They’ve allowed 60.0 rushing yards per game this season. However, the Cyclones haven’t faced a good test on the ground yet. That doesn’t change the fact that Baylor will likely need to move the football through the air a good amount.

The spread for this game is Iowa State -3. Baylor opened as the favorite, but it has since shifted into Iowa State’s favor. Despite the line movement, we like Baylor to keep it close. This game is virtually a toss up, so we'd rather take the team getting the points.

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The Over/Under

Both Baylor and Iowa State have played good defense through the first three games, but the Cyclones haven't faced any explosive offenses. We think they'll struggle a bit against Shapen in the passing game, which will then result in the Cyclones needing to throw more. 

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Neither one of these teams is a juggernaut offensively, but they both have good quarterbacks and this total is so low that a big play or two will allow the Over to cash. For that reason, we're not taking the Under here. 

Baylor vs. Iowa State Best Bet

Over 45.5

The best bet for this game is Over 45.5 points. The spread is awfully close to a pick ‘em, so a bounce of the ball one way could change the outcome. We think the Over is the safer pick because it is so low. These offenses are capable of moving the ball on one another. 

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