CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Alabama vs. Arkansas on October 1, 2022

The Alabama Crimson Tide look to continue their undefeated season on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Since the close win at Texas, Alabama has outscored its opponents 118-10. Arkansas lost its first game of the season against Texas A&M in Week 4, and it was a game the Razorbacks really should have won. This match-up will be key in deciding the outcome of the SEC West division, so you won't want to miss it. This showdown will kick off from Razorback Stadium on Saturday, October 1, at 3:30PM ET.

Do the Razorbacks have a shot at hanging around against the Crimson Tide? You might want to keep reading our Alabama vs. Arkansas betting preview to find out. 

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Alabama vs. Arkansas Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 85% chance Alabama wins on the moneyline
• 54% probability Arkansas covers +17.5 spread
• 51% shot Alabama vs. Arkansas goes Under 60 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Alabama vs. Arkansas data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Analysis

The Spread

Casual fans might look at this game and say that Arkansas doesn’t have a chance, especially after its loss against Texas A&M. However, this is a perfect formula for a trap game for Alabama. Nick Saban and company will be hitting the road in one of the toughest environments in college football against a team with a chip on its shoulder. 

Arkansas was up 14-0 against a really good Texas A&M team before a costly fumble returned for a touchdown shifted the momentum of that game. It was a close game that could have gone either way in the end, but it's one the Razorbacks would have put away if they had cashed in rather than turning the ball over on the play that swung the game.  

Alabama showed its vulnerability at Texas a few weeks ago. One of its main concerns after that game was penalties. That is still a concern since Alabama hasn’t played an away game since traveling to Austin. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

The spread in this game is at Alabama -17.5. That is a large point spread for any team going on the road against a top-25 opponent. For the Crimson Tide to cover, they will need to rack up the points against a solid Arkansas defense. However, the Razorbacks are vulnerable in the secondary. 

Alabama has been lacking a wide receiver, relative to years past, that is able to take the top off the defense. The Tide have one of those guys on the roster in Tyler Harrell, but he has not seen the field this season due to an injury. Harrell dressed for Alabama’s previous game against Vanderbilt but didn’t play. 

We like Arkansas to cover the 17.5 point spread, and the DimersBOT agrees. This spread is simply too big. Alabama hasn’t proven itself against good competition this season. The Tide struggled on the road at Texas, and we wouldn’t be shocked if Arkansas pulls off the upset outright. 

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The Over/Under

A lot of weight regarding the point total will be put on whether or not Harrell will play. His elite speed could help Alabama light up the scoreboard, and this game could easily turn into a shootout. If Harrell doesn’t play, Alabama will lack a downfield threat in the passing game. Defending the pass is where Arkansas’ weakness lies. 

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Betting this point total is a total crapshoot. The point total is at 60. If we had to lean one way, we would go with the Under. The DimersBOT also doesn’t give us a convincing lean one way.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Best Bet

Razorbacks +17.5

Since we think betting the point total in this game is a little tricky, we like Arkansas plus the points as the best bet. We don’t expect Alabama to put up a ton of points especially on the road. The status of Harrell will play a big factor in this game. But Arkansas +17.5 is definitely the safest bet in this one.

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