CFB Best Bets, Picks and Analysis For Western Michigan vs. Michigan State on September 2, 2022

One of last season’s surprise teams will kick off its season on Friday, September 2 at 7:00PM ET, when the 15th-ranked Michigan State Spartans host the MAC's Western Michigan Broncos at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan.

The Spartans won 11 games in 2021, including a 31-21 Peach Bowl victory over the Pittsburgh Panthers. Meanwhile, Western Michigan finished its season with an 8-5 record and a 52-24 win over the Nevada Wolf Pack in the Quick Lane Bowl. Mel Tucker’s Spartans are favored by nearly three touchdowns in this one, but the first week of the year can be tricky for any team. 

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For the most up to date CFB computer picks, check out our interactive predictions for Western Michigan vs. Michigan State. It's constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Best Bets, Predictions and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

Michigan State returns arguably two of its best players on offense in quarterback Payton Thorne and wide receiver Jayden Reed. There is some change in the running backs room, as 2021 Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III is in the NFL. However, the backfield is filled with talent like Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard. The big question mark for the MSU offense is on the offensive line. However, that unit should be able to handle the Western Michigan defensive line in pass protection.

Broncos middle linebacker Corvin Moment is a player to watch out for. He can be a game changer for his team, as he can rush the passer and play in coverage. Western Michigan’s defense needs to bring its A-game to hold Michigan State’s offense, which will be able to score in multiple ways.

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For Western Michigan to cover the spread, it will need to put up points. The Broncos have a new quarterback in redshirt freshman Jack Salopek. He will be walking into an intimidating atmosphere inside Spartan Stadium. Expect Western Michigan to rely on the running game with Sean Tyler early on, but it will need to move the ball through the air as well. The Spartans pass defense was among the worst in the nation last season.

The line for this game opened at -19, but it has since moved considerably in Michigan State’s favor. But we think the Broncos will be able to take advantage of a weak Spartans secondary. That means that the real question is how many points the Spartans will score. We expect this to be a comfortable win for Michigan State, but Western Michigan should do enough to cover the spread. Our DimersBOT echoes that statement, as it gives the Broncos a 51% chance of covering. 

Over/Under Breakdown

Michigan State has the weapons to put up points on offense, with the deep running back and receiving room. The Broncos gave up 30 or more points in seven of its games last season, so the Spartans should be able to cross that 30-point marker. 

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Western Michigan will likely rely on the run early on, however, they need to pass the ball to score points. Michigan State has the ability to put up 30 to 40 points. Even in the first game of the season for both teams, we like the Over here quite a bit. 

DimersBOT also agrees with backing the Over in this one, with our predictive analytics model giving this game a 55% chance clearing the number. 

Best Bet: Broncos vs. Spartans

Michigan State has changed its identity since Tucker took over. The days of having the top defense in the nation are gone. We really like Western Michigan to cover the spread. Michigan State has the talent advantage, so it should win by a good margin. But 22 points just seems like a bit too much to give a solid Broncos team.

We're taking Western Michigan +22 and suggest using the DraftKings bet $5 to get $200 offer mentioned at the top of this article because, even if it doesn't hit, new customers still get $200 just for joining and betting $5 on the Broncos to cover. You can claim it ➡️ here ⬅️. 

Best Player Props for Week 1

The team at Prop or Chop have found two player props they love in this weekend, so check them out on this week's episode below. And remember to bet them with DraftKings Sportsbook, where new customers can throw down $5 and score an instant $200 in bonuses - even if your ticket doesn't cash!