CFB Best Bets, Picks and Analysis For USC vs. Stanford on September 10, 2022

USC has had trouble with Stanford in the past, but will Lincoln Riley's presence change all of that? The Trojans will need to play a great game in order to overcome the Cardinal in enemy territory on Saturday September 10, 2022 at 7:30PM ET. USC did look dominant in its Week 1 win over Rice, but this is big step up in competition and Stanford turned in a good performance in its opener. 

Will the Cardinal faithful help their team pull off this upset? You'll just have to keep reading our USC vs. Stanford betting preview to find out. 

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For the most up to date CFB computer picks, check out our interactive predictions for USC vs. Stanford. It's constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

USC vs. Stanford Best Bets, Predictions and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

Stanford is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams and it doesn't just stop there. The Cardinal are also 11-8 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points under head coach David Shaw and they're also 4-2 both straight-up and ATS as home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 in that span.

On top of that, Stanford is 10-3-1 ATS when coming off a home no-cover in which the team won as a favorite. With that said, there are a lot of trends that suggest the Cardinal will not only compete in this game, but they might even win it outright. 

Under Shaw, Stanford has been a run-heavy program that focuses on time of possession and the ability to avoid making big mistakes defensively, but this year's group is a little different. While the Cardinal do have a great running back in E.J. Smith, Emmitt's son, the team also has a great quarterback in Tanner McKee.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Stanford will turn into an Air Raid school out of nowhere, but it does give Shaw's squad more of a shot at competing against teams that like to play high-scoring games. 

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McKee threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns last week, which was a nice way to start the year after picking up some serious buzz as an NFL prospect last season. McKee also threw for 234 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against USC last year, and he added another score on the ground for good measure.

The Trojans are a better team this year than they were a year ago, but McKee will still be able to help this Stanford team keep up in a potential shootout. 

Shaw will also do everything in his power to have his defense ready to avoid getting beaten over the top. USC is going to move the ball rather easily at times throughout this one, but you should expect to see something of a bend-don't-break approach out of Stanford.

That's easier said than done when talking about a Riley-coached offense — especially one that has dual-threat star Caleb Williams at quarterback — but we just ultimately think the Cardinal are capable of getting enough stops to get the job done here. That's why we're taking the points and we're also going to suggest sprinkling a little on the moneyline (perhaps a quarter of a unit). 

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Over/Under Breakdown

The Over is 6-2 in the last eight games these two have played and they actually combined to score a total of 70 points when they met last season. Stanford might not want to get into a shootout in this one, but the team is fully capable of holding its own if it turns into that.

And against this USC team, it's just hard to see this being anything but a high-scoring game. Not only are the Trojans unproven on the defensive side of the ball, but we know Riley's offense is designed for his team to put up points in a hurry. 

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The Over is also 13-6 in games in which Stanford has been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since Shaw became the team's head coach. In that time, the Over is also 5-3 when the total on the game is 63 or higher.

Best Bet: Trojans vs. Cardinal

The play in this one is definitely Stanford +9 and we do think it's worth a small moneyline play. The Cardinal will feed off their home crowd and surprise the world by giving the Trojans a run for their money.

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