CFB Best Bets, Picks and Analysis For Penn State vs. Auburn on September 17, 2022

The Auburn Tigers haven't exactly looked dominant to start the year, but the team has a golden opportunity to make a statement with the Penn State Nittany Lions visiting Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama at 3:30PM ET on Saturday, September 17. 

Will the Tigers be able to overcome a shaky quarterback situation to defeat the Nittany Lions? You'll just have to keep reading our Penn State vs. Auburn betting preview to find out. 

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For the most up to date CFB computer picks, check out our interactive predictions for Penn State vs. Auburn. It's constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Penn State vs. Auburn Best Bets, Predictions and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

Auburn's situation at quarterback is really messy this season, as TJ Finley just isn't a good passer. He threw for just one touchdown with two interceptions against Mercer in the first game of the year for the Tigers, and he followed it up by throwing for no touchdowns and one pick in a 24-16 win over San Jose State. He's not a guy that Auburn can rely on to go out and win games, but the team does have one of the best running backs in the country in Tank Bigsby. 

This season, Bigsby has rushed for 198 yards with three touchdowns and has also added another five receptions as a receiver. He is one of the most dangerous weapons in all of college football and the running game is a big part of the reason that it's tough to go against Auburn in this game. 

The Tigers have the ability to bully the Nittany Lions up front and set the tone in this game, which would also make things a little easier on Finley. He won't be able to make many tight-window throws, but if the defense is loading up to stop Bigsby then he should be able to hit some receivers on short crossing routes. And we anticipate Penn State needing to put extra men in the box to stop Bigsby, as the team's defensive line isn't anything special. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Auburn's defense also appears to be pretty solid at this point in the season. While people were ready to clown the Tigers if they lost to the Spartans last week, it's important to note that San Jose State is actually a good football team. Of course, Auburn should have played a little better, but those that did their homework should have known that it would be a tough game. 

The Tigers are also facing another team that doesn't exactly have a quarterback that lights it up as a passer. Sean Clifford is a great leader and a guy that makes big plays in big moments, so he is definitely a player to fear late in games. But he was shaky as a thrower against Purdue in the first game of the year, and the Auburn secondary should be able to prevent him from making big throws down the field. 

Penn State is also just 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games against SEC opponents. The step up in athleticism has been tough for the Nittany Lions to overcome and it wouldn't be surprising if the Tigers look bigger and better here. That's why we're taking Auburn +3. The DimersBOT gives this a 58% chance of hitting. 

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Over/Under Breakdown

These teams both preach the importance of doing things right on the defensive side of the ball, and they also favor a run-first style of play. Penn State has had trouble getting the ground game going in recent years, but it appears the Nittany Lions have found something with running back Nick Singleton. With that in mind, they'll be looking to run the ball often in this game — and might not find much success against a big Tigers defensive front. 

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Regardless of whether or not either team runs it successfully, neither team throws it well enough to warrant backing the Over in a game that features two good defenses. We're not getting cute here and are simply backing the Under, which happens to be 12-5 in the last 17 road games that Penn State has played. 

Best Bet: Nittany Lions vs. Tigers

This Auburn team still has a long way to go before reaching the heights we've seen in the past, but this year's Tigers team is rock-solid and should be good enough to defend its home field here. We're backing Auburn +3 and this looks like a good spot to put something on the moneyline as well. 

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