CFB Best Bets, Picks and Analysis For Miami vs. Texas A&M on September 17, 2022

Mario Cristobal is looking for a signature win with the Miami Hurricanes and he's hoping to get it against Jimbo Fisher's Texas A&M Aggies in College Station at 9:00PM ET on Saturday, September 17. 

Will the Aggies right the ship after last week's embarrassing loss to the Appalachian State Mountaineers? You'll just have to keep reading our Miami vs. Texas A&M betting preview to find out. 

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For the most up to date CFB computer picks, check out our interactive predictions for Miami vs. Texas A&M. It's constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Miami vs. Texas A&M Best Bets, Predictions and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

The Aggies were manhandled at the line of scrimmage in their loss to the Mountaineers, as Appalachian State rushed for 181 yards in the upset. Now, Texas A&M faces a Miami team that has proven to be pretty tough along the offensive line — which makes sense given Cristobal's history coaching the group — and the Hurricanes are going to look to run it right down the throats of their opponents here. It is, however, hard to imagine them doing that here. 

Miami's running back duo of Henry Parrish Jr. and Thaddius Franklin Jr. is very good, but we don't think the Aggies are as bad as they looked last week. This is a team that probably overlooked its opponent the week before one of its biggest games of the season. "Sandwich games" can be very dangerous in college football, and we believe Texas A&M fell into the trap. This is a team that gave up only 134.8 rushing yards per game last year, which put them at 36th in the nation. And there is talent scattered throughout this defense, so look for the unit to bounce back here. 

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On the other side of the ball, Miami will not have the luxury of facing Haynes King in the passing game, as the Aggies are finally turning to Max Johnson at quarterback. Johnson threw for 2,815 yards with 27 touchdowns and only six picks for LSU last year, and he is just a much better quarterback than King is. Now that Fisher is finally turning to his better option under center, you should expect Texas A&M to look like a completely different team. Johnson has performed at a high level in big spots early in his college career and he'll be amped up to go out and play in front of these fans in College Station. 

If King were the starter for Texas A&M, we would have been all over Miami in this game. But Johnson's presence should make the Aggies look more like the contenders they were projected to be before the year. We're laying the points and rolling with Fisher's crew. The defense should also feed off the energy that Johnson's presence brings. 

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Over/Under Breakdown

In the 23 games that Texas A&M has played as a home favorite under Fisher, the Under is 13-9-1. It's also 11-3-1 in all September games it has played since he became the team's head coach. This Aggies team generally plays low-scoring games early in the year, and there's no reason to believe that will change now. 

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The Aggies are going to look to get Devon Achane and the ground game going, and that's exactly what the Hurricanes will be hoping to do with their rushing attack. Having two teams that want to run the ball and also happen to play good defense is like a cheat code when betting the Under. There is no other direction to bet this total, so you should at least take pride in knowing this is the right side in the event it somehow loses. 

Best Bet: Hurricanes vs. Aggies

We do think the Aggies will cover in this game, but we have a lot more faith in the Under 45 hitting. Both of these teams have good defenses and the Hurricanes' new run-first approach is a positive for this play. 

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