CFB Best Bets, Picks and Analysis For Louisville vs. UCF on September 9, 2022

The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a disastrous performance against the Syracuse Orange in Week 1, but Scott Satterfield's team will now try to get back on track with a road win over Gus Malzahn and the UCF Knights.

FBC Mortgage Stadium, also known as The Bounce House, will be rocking when these two get out there on Friday, September 9, 2022 at 7:30PM ET, so make sure you try and check this one out. And also make sure you keep reading to check out our Louisville vs. UCF betting preview. 

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For the most up to date CFB computer picks, check out our interactive predictions for Louisville vs. UCF. It's constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Louisville vs. UCF Best Bets, Predictions and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

Last week, Syracuse completely bottled up quarterback Malik Cunningham, but you have to assume that a lot of that had to do with the fact that the Orange had weeks and weeks to prepare for that game. On a shorter week, Central Florida won't have that same luxury, and stopping Cunningham is something that the Knights were unable to do last year.

When these teams met in Kentucky on September 17, 2021, Cunningham threw for 265 yards with a touchdown, while also adding another 99 yards and two scores on the ground. His dual-threat ability was just way too much for UCF to deal with, and the Cardinals came away with 42-35 win as seven-point favorites. 

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

This year, it wouldn't be too surprising if the Knights end up winning the game, but we think Satterfield's group will be able to hang around here. While he hasn't exactly shown it since arriving at Louisville, Satterfield is good at preparing his teams from week to week.

He has also been successful at finding ways to get his offenses right after bad performances, as the Cardinals are 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread when coming off games in which they scored 14 or fewer points since he took over. On top of that, they're also 6-4 both SU and ATS when coming off road losses in that span. 

It just shouldn't surprise anybody if Cunningham's legs are a huge factor in preventing UCF from pulling away in this game. The Knights are actually 1-8 ATS since the start of 2020-21 when coming off a game in which they scored at least 42 points. They have won those games by an average of only 6.1 points per game, and this game conveniently finds the Cardinals as seven-point underdogs.

We're taking the points and looking for Louisville's offense to get back on track against a UCF team that gave up at least 30 points in five games last season. DimersBOT also gives Louisville a 55% shot at covering here. 

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Over/Under Breakdown

Last year, these two teams combined to score a total of 77 points when they met in Kentucky, so it'd feel wrong to even consider backing the Under in this game. Louisville's offense struggled in Week 1, but the Cardinals are too talented not to get it right.

And the fact that they get to face a defense that they put up 42 against last year has to make them somewhat confident. Meanwhile, the Knights scored 56 points last week and have had explosive offenses for quite some time now.

With that in mind, the team should be able to find some success against a team that gave up 31 points to a weak opponent last week. 

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The Over is also 8-5 in games in which Louisville has been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points under Satterfield, and it's also 10-4 when the Cardinals are coming off of a road game in that time.

It's also worth noting that the Over is 5-1-1 in the seven games that the Knights have played in the first month of the season under Malzahn. 

Best Bet: Cardinals vs. Knights

While we like the Cardinals to keep this thing close, the easiest bet to make in this one is just taking the Over 61.5. This is a game that features to teams that aren't anything special defensively, but both of these groups are capable of putting up points in a hurry. 

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