Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: Buffalo Predicted to Win in NFL Week 18 [2025]

The New England Patriots will take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 18 action at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Buffalo-New England game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Bills with a win probability of 65%, while the Patriots have 35%."

This updated Bills vs. Patriots betting preview builds on my early Bills vs. Patriots prediction that I published at the start of the week.

For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Bills vs. Patriots predictions page.

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Bills vs. Patriots Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

The NFL Week 18 matchup between the Patriots and Bills at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, January 5, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
• Merchandise: Buy Patriots and Bills gear at Fanatics

Dimers.com's full preview of this week's Bills vs. Patriots matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Buffalo vs. New England picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Bills vs. Patriots Predictions

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Bills a 65% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 20-17.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Bills and Patriots each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 36.5-point over/under has a 56% chance of going over.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

We have sourced the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Bills	Patriots
Spread	-3.5 (+100)	+3.5 (-120)
Moneyline	-170	+152
Total	o36.5 (-110)	u36.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Bills vs. Patriots Picks

Our model's biggest edge in today's Bills vs. Patriots matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Bills vs. Patriots TD Scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Bills vs. Patriots?

According to our model, Buffalo's Ray Davis is most likely to score the first TD in Bills vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Davis an 8.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Bills RB is a 27.9% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
Ray Davis	8.1%
James Cook	7.3%
Keon Coleman	6.5%

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
Antonio Gibson	7.4%
Rhamondre Stevenson	6.8%
Kayshon Boutte	6.1%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Ray Davis	27.9%
James Cook	25.5%
Keon Coleman	23.6%

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Antonio Gibson	28.1%
Rhamondre Stevenson	25.0%
Kayshon Boutte	22.8%

Bills vs Patriots Player Props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Patriots. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Bills-Patriots page now to access every player prop projection.

Bills vs. Patriots Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Mitchell Trubisky is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Patriots' Drake Maye.

Bills Rushing

Ray Davis, James Cook and Ty Johnson are projected to be the leading rushers for the Bills.

Player	Position
Ray Davis	RB
James Cook	RB
Ty Johnson	RB

Patriots Rushing

Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson and Drake Maye are expected to lead the Patriots in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB
Antonio Gibson	RB
Drake Maye	QB

Bills Receiving

Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Quintin Morris, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are projected to top the receiving yards for the Bills.

Player	Position
Keon Coleman	WR
Mack Hollins	WR
Quintin Morris	TE
Khalil Shakir	WR
Curtis Samuel	WR

Patriots Receiving

DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper and Rhamondre Stevenson are projected to lead the Patriots in receiving yards.

Player	Position
DeMario Douglas	WR
Kendrick Bourne	WR
Kayshon Boutte	WR
Austin Hooper	TE
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 18 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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