Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Kansas City Predicted to Win AFC Championship Game [2025]

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game of the NFL Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 6:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Buffalo-Kansas City game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Chiefs with a win probability of 54%, while the Bills have 46%."

This updated Bills vs. Chiefs betting preview builds on my early Bills vs. Chiefs prediction that I released at the start of the week.

For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Bills vs. Chiefs predictions page.

READER EXCLUSIVE: Use code 20FOOTBALL at checkout now to get 20% off your first month of Dimers Pro! Hurry, this offer won't last long.

Bills vs. Chiefs Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

Sunday's matchup between the Chiefs and Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 6:30PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025
• Time: 6:30PM ET/3:30PM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
• Merchandise: Buy Chiefs and Bills gear at Fanatics

Dimers.com's full preview of Sunday's Bills vs. Chiefs matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Buffalo vs. Kansas City picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Bills and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 54% chance of beating the Bills. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 24-23.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Bills and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Bills	Chiefs
Spread	+1.5 (-118)	-1.5 (-102)
Moneyline	-102	-115
Total	o49.5 (-108)	u49.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Bills vs. Chiefs Picks

Our model's biggest edge in today's Bills vs. Chiefs matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Bills vs. Chiefs TD Scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Bills vs. Chiefs?

According to our model, Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first touchdown in Bills vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Allen a 10.5% chance of scoring the first TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 46.8% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
Josh Allen	10.5%
James Cook	8.7%
Khalil Shakir	5.8%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Travis Kelce	9.1%
Kareem Hunt	8.4%
Xavier Worthy	7.1%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Josh Allen	46.8%
James Cook	40.1%
Khalil Shakir	28.0%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Travis Kelce	41.9%
Kareem Hunt	39.6%
Xavier Worthy	33.7%

Bills vs Chiefs Player Props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Chiefs. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Bills-Chiefs page now to access every player prop projection.

Bills vs. Chiefs Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.

Bills Rushing

James Cook, Josh Allen and Ray Davis are projected to be the leading rushers for the Bills.

Player	Position
James Cook	RB
Josh Allen	QB
Ray Davis	RB

Chiefs Rushing

Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco and Patrick Mahomes are expected to lead the Chiefs in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Kareem Hunt	RB
Isiah Pacheco	RB
Patrick Mahomes	QB

Bills Receiving

Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins are projected to top the receiving yards for the Bills.

Player	Position
Khalil Shakir	WR
Keon Coleman	WR
Dalton Kincaid	TE
Amari Cooper	WR
Mack Hollins	WR

Chiefs Receiving

Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Noah Gray are projected to lead the Chiefs in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Travis Kelce	TE
Xavier Worthy	WR
Hollywood Brown	WR
DeAndre Hopkins	WR
Noah Gray	TE

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Bills on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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