Broncos vs. Chargers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Monday Night Football on October 17, 2022

Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 2:56PM | First published: Oct 12, 2022, 11:22PM

Broncos vs. Chargers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Monday Night Football on October 17, 2022

Expect some end-zone celebrations on Monday Night Football at 8:15PM ET on October 17, when the 2-3 Denver Broncos, already playing their fourth prime-time game, visit the 3-2 Los Angeles Chargers, who are coming off back-to-back road wins.

The reason we need to say that is Denver's game last week featured seven field goals, capped by Indianapolis' Chase McLaughlin’s 48-yard game winner, no touchdowns, four interceptions and six non-turnover fumbles.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Broncos vs. Chargers betting preview.

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Broncos vs. Chargers Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

51% chance the Chargers cover the -4.5 spread
69% shot the Chargers win on the moneyline
56% probability Broncos vs. Chargers goes Over 45.5 points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Broncos vs. Chargers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Broncos vs. Chargers Odds and Betting Lines

Why The Broncos Will Cover The Spread

Last week marked the fourth time in five games Denver’s defense held an opponent to 17 points or fewer, but it’s no breaking news the Broncos will desperately need more from Russell Wilson’s offense to keep up with Justin Herbert & Co.

Getting away from the boos and grumblings of the Broncos’ faithful might serve Wilson well, although reports he’s dealing with a partially torn lat near his throwing shoulder and underwent a procedure only adds to a lack of confidence in an offense that’s topped 16 points once so far.

Los Angeles coughed up 213 yards rushing in Cleveland, so the backfield combination of former Charger Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone will be a factor.

MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities

Why The Chargers Will Cover The Spread

The last time the Chargers were home they were embarrassed by Jacksonville in an inexplicable 38-10 defeat in Week 3 and will be looking to make amends. Herbert was still feeling the effects of a rib injury suffered six days earlier at Kansas City and it showed.

The last time the Broncos visited the Chargers in last year’s penultimate regular-season game, Herbert was on point in a 34-13 blowout victory going 22 of 31 with two touchdown passes. One of those scoring strikes went to Keenan Allen, who continues to deal with a hamstring injury but looks like he might be back this week.

Why The Over Will Hit

The Broncos are allowing only 204.4 yards passing per game, good for third-best in the league, and would greatly benefit from the absence of Allen. However, they haven’t faced an offense quite like the Chargers yet.

The Chargers love to play at a fast pace and that’s something Denver’s defense struggled with in Las Vegas a few weeks back in a 32-23 loss. The Broncos may not have a choice but to try to keep up.

Why The Under Will Hit

Only one of Denver’s first five games surpassed the Over, and none of the other four were remotely close. Given the injury news on Wilson, the offense should lean more on Gordon and Boone to keep the chains and clock moving as well as Herbert on the sideline.

With Austin Ekeler coming off a career-high 173-yard rushing performance against the Browns, both attacks have the ability to grind.

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction

Lean: Broncos +4.5

Three extra days of rest and a defense that’s shown the ability to keep the Broncos close every week are reasons to lean Denver with nearly a touchdown spread head start.

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Written by

Tony Bellissimo

Tony Bellissimo, with over 25 years of sports reporting and editing experience, has earned multiple New York State Press Association awards and oversees sports coverage for 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.