Breeders Cup 2023: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The much-anticipated 2023 Breeders' Cup is set to unfold today at Santa Anita racetrack, marking the event's 11th return to this hallowed venue in its illustrious 40-year history.

A spectacular day of horse racing awaits, featuring nine exhilarating races, with the crown jewel of the event being the Breeders' Cup Classic—a challenging 1¼-mile test of speed, stamina, and heart, often serving as the stage for crowning the Horse of the Year. A noteworthy twist this year is that the Classic won't be the day's final race, but will instead be followed by the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

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While the excitement is palpable, some notable names will be conspicuously absent from this pinnacle of American horse racing. Mage, the Kentucky Derby champion, has been withdrawn from the Classic due to a decreased appetite. 

Arcangelo, victor of the Belmont Stakes, will also be missing from the $6 million Classic, as he grapples with a foot problem and is set to retire to Lane's End Farm for the 2024 season. Forte, the reigning champion 2-year-old male of 2022, has hung up his racing shoes, embarking on a new journey as a stallion at Spendthrift Farm next year. Modern Games, a five-time Grade/Group 1 champion who claimed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in 2021 and the Breeders' Cup Mile in 2022, has similarly retired from racing, poised to begin a fresh chapter as a stallion. Nest, a three-time Grade 1 winner, will be presented at the Fasig-Tipton November sale, available as either a racing or broodmare prospect.

In preparation for the grand event, selections for each championship race on Saturday have been meticulously crafted. These recommendations include a top pick for each race, alongside other horses likely to provide solid value for multi-race wagers such as the Daily Double and the Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, and Pick 6. These selections prioritize value-based betting, distinguishing between odds above the fair value, which warrant a win bet, and those below, which should be bypassed. It's worth noting that the fair-value odds provided might deviate significantly from the morning line, as the latter is not always the most accurate indicator.

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Let's delve into the selections for each of the Breeders' Cup Championship races scheduled for Saturday:

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Race 3, 2:30 p.m. - A one-mile race for 3-year-olds and up.

Pick: No. 7 Algiers (+600)

Fair value: +600

Cody's Wish, the reigning Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile champion with a string of impressive victories to his name, stands as the class of the field. However, with a morning line of 9-5, he may not offer substantial value. Instead, consider Algiers, whose recent performances include a close second-place finish in the Grade 3 Durham Cup and a competitive showing in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup. Algiers' versatility, coupled with a strong record at a mile, positions him as an attractive option.

Other contenders: No. 5 Charge It

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Race 4, 3:10 p.m. - A 1¼-mile race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the Hillside Turf.

Pick: No. 11 Lumiere Rock (+1200)

Fair value: +1000

This Breeders' Cup race typically sees victory claimed by overseas invaders or horses trained by Chad Brown. However, for an international twist, Lumiere Rock, trained by Joseph O'Brien, offers an intriguing option. With a history of consistently strong performances, including wins at attractive odds, Lumiere Rock shows promise. Joseph O'Brien's track record further enhances this filly's appeal.

Other contenders: No. 3 With The Moonlight, No. 6 Inspiral, and No. 10 McKulick

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Race 5, 3:50 p.m. - A seven-furlong race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Pick: No. 2 Clearly Unhinged (+1200)

Fair value: +1000

Clearly Unhinged, a talented 3-year-old filly, has already displayed her mettle by winning her debut and achieving a close second-place finish in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. Her ability to maintain a high pace figure in her latest races suggests potential for future improvement. Additionally, her strong track record at Santa Anita enhances her prospects.

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Breeders’ Cup Mile

Race 6, 4:30 p.m. - A one-mile race for 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the turf.

Pick: No. 11 Kelina (+600)

Fair value: +400

Kelina, the daughter of Frankel, possesses an under-the-radar charm, boasting four victories in her nine career starts, including a notable triumph in the Group 1 Qatar Prix de la Foret. This victory underscores her ability to compete at the highest level. With ownership aspirations akin to Goldikova's Breeders' Cup Mile legacy, Kelina is a compelling contender.

Other contenders: No. 2 Gina Romantica, No. 6 Mawj, and No. 14 Master of The Seas

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Race 7, 5:10 p.m. - A 1⅛-mile race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Pick: No. 3 Pretty Mischievous (+800)

Fair value: +550

In a race characterized by ample speed, Pretty Mischievous, an off-the-pace runner, stands out as a promising choice. With a strong record of seven wins, two seconds, and a third in ten starts, including victories in Grade 1 and Grade 2 competitions, Pretty Mischievous offers a compelling blend of talent and adaptability.

Other contenders: No. 5 Adare Manor and No. 9 Clairiere

Breeders’ Cup Turf

Eighth race, 5:50 p.m. 1½-mile race for 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the Hillside Turf.

Pick: No. 5 Auguste Rodin (+300)

Fair value +200

We are looking for an overseas horse from Ireland (won 15 of the last 29 Breeders’ Cup Turf races), preferably trained by Aidan O’Brien (who has a record-setting six wins in this race), that has already won a Grade 1 or Group 1 race (10 of the last 12 winners in the Turf satisfied this requirement). Those signs point to Auguste Rodin, the second choice on the morning line.

His impressive victories at varying distances and surfaces, including a triumph against top older rivals in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, demonstrate his exceptional talent and versatility. With a strong pedigree for firm turf and his recent successes, he’s well-equipped for victory at Santa Anita.

Other contenders: No. 4 Bolshoi Ballet, No. 9 Mostahdaf and No. 12 Balladeer

Breeders’ Cup Classic

Ninth race, 6:40 p.m. 1¼-mile race for 3-year-olds and up.

Pick: No. 5 Derma Sotogake (+2000)

Fair value +1600

Japan’s top-rated 2-year-old in 2022 presents a compelling case to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Although his Kentucky Derby bid faced challenges due to a hindered start, his impressive wins in Japan, including the Grade 2 UAE Derby, demonstrate his exceptional potential.

Derma Sotogake’s pedigree — he’s the son of the accomplished Mind Your Biscuits (twice voted New York-bred Horse of the Year) — suggests sprinter speed while his dam, Amour Poesie, brings significant stamina, making him well-suited for the Classic’s distance of 1¼ miles.

Other contenders: No. 2 Zandon

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Breeders’ Cup Turf

Race 8, 5:50 p.m. - A 1½-mile race for 3-year-olds and up; to be run on the Hillside Turf.

Pick: No. 5 Auguste Rodin (+300)

Fair value: +300

The Breeders' Cup Turf often favors overseas horses from Ireland, ideally trained by Aidan O'Brien and with a history of winning Grade 1 or Group 1 races. Auguste Rodin, the second choice on the morning line, fits this profile seamlessly. His victories at varying distances and surfaces, including a triumph in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, underscore his exceptional ability and versatility.

Other contenders: No. 4 Bolshoi Ballet, No. 9 Mostahdaf, and No. 12 Balladeer

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