Bills vs. Chiefs Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Sunday, October 16, 2022

Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 2:57PM | First published: Oct 13, 2022, 12:09AM

Bills vs. Chiefs Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Sunday, October 16, 2022

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs met in the AFC postseason last year, when the Chiefs earned a 42-36 win over the Bills in a game that saw Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes playing to the very best of their abilities. Now, everybody will be tuned in when these two meet again on Sunday, October 16 at 4:25PM ET.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Bills vs. Chiefs betting preview.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

60% chance the Chiefs cover the +2.5 spread
54% shot the Bills win on the moneyline
52% probability Bills vs. Chiefs goes Under 53.5 points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Bills vs. Chiefs data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds and Betting Lines

Why The Bills Will Cover The Spread

Buffalo is coming off of a 38-3 victory as a 14-point favorite against Pittsburgh last week, and this Bills team is now 4-1 straight-up and 3-1-1 against the spread on the year. And while Kansas City is also 4-1, it's Buffalo that has the more impressive statistical profile this year.

The Chiefs are first in the league in scoring offense, as they're averaging 31.8 points per game. But the Bills aren't far behind on offense, as they're averaging 30.4 points per game. However, it's Buffalo that has the best defense in football, as the team is tied for first in giving up just 12.2 points per game. Kansas City is nowhere close to that mark, giving up 25.0 points per game.

It just isn't that hard to picture the Bills in the driver's seat in this one. They have all the firepower needed to keep up with Mahomes and Co., and they also have the defense required to come up with big stops.

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Why The Chiefs Will Cover The Spread

The Chiefs are just 2-3 ATS this season, so they aren't covering with the same regularity that the Bills are thus far. But Kansas City has proven that it can win close games this year, and the team is going to have a lot of bulletin board material considering it is a home underdog in this one.

The Chiefs are also going to be a completely different beast for a Bills defense that didn't face much of a challenge last week. Buffalo got to go up against a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett and a nonexistent Pittsburgh running game. It was just not a challenge for the Bills, but the same can't be said about this one. Shutting Mahomes down is never easy and doing so at Arrowhead is even harder.

Since Andy Reid became Kansas City's head coach, the team is actually 16-6 ATS versus AFC East opponents. On top of that, the Chiefs are 26-14 ATS when coming off a division win in that span.

Why The Over Will Hit

These teams combined to score 78 points the last time they faced one another, so it isn't hard to see why a lot bettors will be flocking to the Over in this one. These are two of the best quarterbacks this game has to offer, and both are parts of explosive offenses.

Even without Tyreek Hill in the lineup, this Kansas City offense is still scoring more than any other in the league. That means that you can probably still count on the Chiefs offense to put up a big number, even against a defense like this one.

The Over is also 9-2 when Buffalo is coming off a game in which it gained at least 6.5 yards per play under head coach Sean McDermott.

Why The Under Will Hit

There isn't a bettor on the planet that won't look at this game and immediately think to take the Over. These defenses just couldn't stop one another last year and both of these offenses fall into the elite category this year. It is, however, a bit of fool's gold to see this number not sitting in the high 50's. The oddsmakers want you to bet the Over, and you don't want to do what the oddsmakers want you to do.

The Bills defense is also much improved from last year, with Von Miller being a guy that could make a big difference in this one. His ability to rush the passer could throw Kansas City off a lot.

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction

Lean: Under 53.5

Everybody in the world will want to bet the Over after last year's game turning into the shootout of all shootouts. But Vegas would have set this line a lot higher if it were worried about a high-scoring game. We're not falling for the bait and suggest taking the Under.

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Written by

Zachary Cohen

Zachary Cohen, a University of Wisconsin graduate, has written about betting and fantasy sports for prominent outlets like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel, and FOX Bet, with a strong focus on the NBA and college athletics.