MLB Futures: Things To Know When Betting On Potential Juan Soto Trade Destinations

Every year, when the Major League Baseball trade deadline approaches, it’s not unusual for superstar players to be made available. The sudden availability of Nationals superstar Juan Soto, however, is quite unusual. Here are some wise rules to follow when deciding how to use the possibility of a Soto trade to maximum advantage when wagering.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz discusses what trends to watch for in the Juan Soto Sweepstakes.

Juan Soto Next Team Odds

Ignore the Rumors

Look back at past years when blockbuster deals were made at the deadline. Was there a hint of the full parameters of the eventual deal that came to pass amid the quid pro quo whispers to suit the ends of the agents, the teams, the players and the media? 

In other words, rumored deals are rarely completed, according to the leaked information. 

The bigger deals tend to happen suddenly and without warning. Whether it’s intentional subterfuge, outright fiction or inaccurate information, there are few nuggets of truth churning the rumor mill. Betting based on what checkmark Twitter says, or due to a random account that was created a week ago and claims to have insider status is a sure way to make mistakes.

Recognize And Discard The Irrelevant

Much of the talk as to where Soto might wind up has been based on irrelevant nonsense of the “Yeah, and?” and “So what?” variety.

The Nationals did not pay for a charter flight for Soto to get to Los Angeles for the All-Star Game, implying there is an irreparable rift between player and club. 

"If you've seen my numbers at that field, it's amazing."
- Juan Soto

Chipper at Shea:
.313 BA, .407 OBP, .557 SLG & .964 OPS.

Freeman at Citi Field:
.293 BA, .372 OBP, .453 SLG & .825 OPS.

Soto at Citi Field:
.350 BA (36-for-103), .464 OBP, .709 SLG, 1.173 OPS & 10 HR. #Mets pic.twitter.com/iSDTaU9MVi

— Brad Badini ⚾️ (@celeBRADtion) July 22, 2022

Soto posted an image of himself at Citi Field with hashtags implying he’d like to play for the Mets. There will be a ton of chatter before a deal is made – if a deal is made. 

It’s a dead end to search for meaning in every image shared; every movement made; every statement uttered; every opposing player he interacts with; and everything agent Scott Boras says because of the following: 

• Soto will only be traded if the Nationals decide to trade him
• He has no power whatsoever to dictate where he goes
• His contract demands are meaningless since he is not a free agent until after 2024

Gauge The Motivation Of The Nationals And The Interested Teams

The Nationals are supposedly up for sale and they are in the middle of a gutting rebuild.

This past spring, the Nationals were generally ranked in the lower third for strength of farm system. With a talent like Soto, they can reasonably ask for three or four of an organization’s Top 10 prospects and make a dramatic leap in their organizational depth, helping them return to contention faster.

President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo is one of baseball’s best builders and evaluators. He knows what he wants and understands Soto’s unique value. The possibility of the club being sold cannot be ignored as trade talks proceed. 

“If I were running the Nats, I’d simply sign Juan Soto to an extension.”

Oh. Okay. Mike Rizzo is sure going to feel dumb that he didn’t think of this. https://t.co/h53Gr6oO8f

— The D.C. Universe (@dcuniverse) July 25, 2022

Will the current ownership order Rizzo to get the deal done and make sure to attach Patrick Corbin’s contract to it? How will that reduce the return? Despite Rizzo’s history as an executive, a new owner might want their own people. Rizzo has a stellar reputation in baseball and his success in Washington speaks for itself, but he cannot get fleeced in a deal involving Soto regardless of ownership demands and have that as his Nationals legacy if he’s looking for a new job.

There’s No Real Rush

Barring an order from ownership, the Nationals do not need to trade Soto now, so they can wait for their demands to be met or pull him off the market, revisiting a trade in the winter. This gives them additional leverage, as if they needed it.

All the big money contenders will be involved, but it’s important to look at the past aggressiveness of those teams as well as teams with less money but the minor-league depth to get him. 

Will Brian Cashman surrender the higher-end prospects he’s accrued for the Yankees by including Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez?

Is Steve Cohen so hungry for a title with the Mets that he’ll be alright giving up Francisco Alvarez, Alex Ramirez and others, while taking Corbin’s contract?

What about the Dodgers? Do they even need Soto or is it just another addition to the star-studded collection? Would they give up the prospects? 

The Rays would ordinarily not be involved, but they have the well-stocked system, and the nerve. Soto’s cost-certainty puts them in the mix.

Jerry Dipoto, with the Mariners, is about as aggressive a trader as there is in baseball and with the Mariners’ scorching hot streak to end the first half putting them in playoff position and a highly-rated farm system, they are certainly a team to watch.

What Is Juan Soto Really Worth?

Soto, who will turn 24 in October, has a rare combination of attributes, both talent-wise and contractually. He is a fully developed megastar at a young age. There is no waiting for him to find his way into his talent because he’s already there. The only question is how much better he will get. He hits for power, walks, can steal a base if he’s so inclined, and — ironically for a young slugger — does not strike out an inordinate amount. 

His offensive numbers across the board are stratospheric. He is somewhat indifferent defensively, but he’s not an outright liability and the DH is now in effect throughout baseball instead of solely in the American League, rendering glove work somewhat a moot point. He has postseason experience and success. 

Unlike most young players who might suddenly come available, he is under team control for the remainder of 2022 plus 2023-24. 

This makes him palatable not just to the big market teams who have the money to retain his services as a free agent, but every team with the prospects and the motivation to deal them to get a transcendent player.