Betting on American League Division Futures: Is there value in favored Rays, Twins, Astros?

We’re a month into the 2023 MLB campaign and the landscape of the season is taking shape. Favorites are emerging across the league for home run leaders, player awards, divisions and more. This year brought rule changes, pitch clocks and bigger bases, but one thing has remained constant; the futures market is rife with value.

Our cutting-edge predictive analytics model is constantly running 1000s of simulations with all of the latest data to identify betting value. Whether you’re placing daily wagers or betting on futures, you can make data-driven decisions to get the most out of your bets and give yourself the most profitable edge in the long run.

MORE: MLB Game Predictions and Best Bets

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Let’s use our model to sort through the American League futures market to find some betting value in each division. We’ll look at the favorites for each and whether or not they project for a worthwhile bet.

 

Understanding MLB Futures

If you’re unfamiliar, the term “futures market” refers to wagers you can place on outcomes that will happen further down the line, such as championships, division winners and awards recipients. This can be one of the most profitable markets for bettors, as you’re traditionally capitalizing on plus-money odds and sometimes big longshots. Over the course of the season, any number of factors can influence futures odds, from small shifts to massive swings. Using those influencing factors and the posted odds, we can glean information to identify where we should be betting our money.

 

American League East

Standings-wise, this is the tightest division in baseball, with not one team under .500. The Yankees were +130 favorites to win the AL East on Opening Day, sporting a 30.1% probability according to our model. The Tampa Bay Rays (+350 with a 22.4% probability on Opening Day) quickly shook up this market with an absurd 13-game winning streak to start the season, tying an MLB record. Their win streak caused us to take our first look at this market and it’s only been trending further in the Rays’ favor since then, which we accurately predicted. They now have a 48.1% chance to win the division title at -105.

Analysis: Minimal value in this market presently. It’s a record-based result and the Rays have a significant early lead. A leaner division schedule this year will make it harder for the Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles to catch up as well. New York has a slight edge in their implied probability, as +300 odds suggest a 25% chance to win the AL East. The Blue Jays were our model’s preseason pick, but their fair price should be +400.

Recommended bet: Yankees to win AL East (+300)

 

American League Central

If the East is the most competitive division in the American League, the AL Central is the other side of the coin. The Twins are the current favorite at -145 to win the division, the lone team with a winning record right now. The Guardians have plodded their way to a 12-13 record and the White Sox have been a major disappointment given their roster and expectations. Despite some intriguing young talent, the Royals and Tigers weren’t considered to be contenders.

Analysis: Although the Guardians were the preseason favorite (+130 on Opening Day) our model gave them just a 26.2% probability to win the division crown, identifying the Twins at +215 as the best play with a monstrous 49.1% probability. That’s proven to be a perfect call as they now sit well ahead of the Guardians (+180) but still around the 50% probability mark.

Currently, you'll find the best prices for this market on DraftKings. As far as Cleveland is concerned, our model actually gives them a better chance to win the AL Central now, sitting at a 33.8% probability at +180, better odds and chances than their Opening Day scenario.

Recommended bet: Guardians to win the AL Central (+180) on DraftKings

 

American League West

This has been the most surprising division in the American League. As heavy Opening Day favorites, the Houston Astros (-175) stumbled out of the gate. Only just surpassing the .500 mark this week after winning seven out of their last ten games, they've settled in at -145 favorites and a 39% probability. The Rangers jumped out to a hot lead before being swept at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, while the Seattle Mariners have underperformed.

Analysis: This looks and feels like anyone’s division right now. The Astros have a clear championship-caliber team and the experience to go with it, but the Angels and Rangers are right there with them. The Rangers were as far out as +1000 on Opening Day, so the price isn’t there, but they have the roster to best contend with Houston. We’d be hesitant to back the Angels, who could be one bad stretch away from trading their franchise talent in Shohei Ohtani.

The best value is on the Mariners at +600, whose odds are nearly double that they were on Opening Day with a higher probability to win according to our model, although they haven’t been passing the eye test lately.

Recommended bets: Texas Rangers to win the AL West (+400), Seattle Mariners to win the AL West (+600) on DraftKings

 

Whichever way you decide to attack the MLB futures market, be sure to utilize the power of our predictive analytics to guide you along the way. With our daily Game Predictions, Best Props, Futures and more, you can stay one step ahead of the books with every wager.