Betting MLB Futures: Never too early to think about the trade deadline

The MLB trade deadline is still two months away, but it's never too early to think about what trades might be on the horizon and how that might affect MLB Futures bets.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz analyzes the possibilities when it comes to MLB Futures.

In this week’s MLB news and speculation – rapidly debunked by the club – was that the Washington Nationals were weighing the value of putting megastar outfielder Juan Soto on the trade market far earlier than anticipated might have been a legitimate whisper from team insiders to gauge the reaction from its fan base. Or it might have been a tactically designed rumor started by the media.  

Regardless, the mere idea that a player who turned 24 on May 20; is under team control for 2.5 years; and is inarguably a top-three talent in all of MLB jolted the industry. Soto being on the market and possibly traded would alter the landscape of projecting which teams have the best chance to acquire him and how that could impact their fortunes for a championship.

Soto is unique in that he’s a known commodity and is worth the cost. That team control makes him more than a rental and his reasonable salary puts in play teams that would otherwise not touch him after assessing the cost-benefit.

A club like the Rays, with a top-tier farm system, could trade for him to go for it in 2022 knowing it would have him for 2023 and 2024 safe in the knowledge that they could recoup what they traded away and more should they decide to move him before he hits unfettered free agency in the winter of 2024-25.  

Despite it being late May and the trade deadline still two months away, it is wise for bettors to evaluate the trade market by looking at teams that have essentially given up (Orioles, Reds, Nationals, Pirates and Athletics); teams that will likely be sellers (Royals, Tigers, Cubs and Rockies); and teams that might be willing to make moves for the future when they are accustomed to being buyers (Red Sox, Guardians and Phillies). 

The Red Sox are trailing the Yankees by double-digits in the AL East. When owner John Henry hired Chaim Bloom to replace Dave Dombrowski as his chief baseball officer, the philosophical gap between the two executives was glaring and shined a light on what the team’s long-term plan exactly was.

Dombrowski’s wild spending and win-now mentality won them a championship. As the window closed, costs skyrocketed and their farm system was diminished due to aggressive trades, the club reverted to Henry’s preferred sensibility of financial sanity and hedging his bets.

Barring a startling burst back into striking distance of first place, both J.D. Martinez and Nate Eovaldi will be on the trade block. Every contending club will be interested in them. In contrast to Soto, these players are not under team control, but as pending free agents, they will also be a target for every team as rentals, not just for clubs that can keep them.  

The Cubs are also in that category of large payroll teams in the midst of a retool whose 2022 season is already going sideways. Kyle Hendricks has a vesting option for 2024. Teams are desperate for starting pitching. Ordinarily, that would mean two-thirds of the teams in MLB would be pursuing Hendricks at the deadline should the Cubs place him up for auction.  

The Mets, having just lost Max Scherzer for 6 to 8 weeks and waiting (praying) for Jacob deGrom’s healthy return, would be a logical landing spot. Yet they are top-heavy with their prospects and lack substantial depth. Some, like Francisco Alvarez, have been labeled untouchable.

The benefit of having an owner like Steve Cohen is that he can be creative and willing to take on salary to get the players he wants – something the Dodgers have done for years. Would the Mets take Jason Heyward’s contract to reduce the prospect cost and get Hendricks?

These are underlying considerations that must be taken into account as bettors decide whether they want to wager on a team like the Mets to win the pennant. They are undoubtedly playing well, but do not have the firepower of the Dodgers. They do have the wherewithal to make moves that other clubs are unable or unwilling to make.  

As bettors scour the scene for advantages and calculate what might happen as the season wears on, it goes beyond won-lost records, injuries, trade chips and finances and expands to analyzing teams’ long and short-term strategies, what their owners want and how their general managers operate.  

The trade deadline is relatively far away, but it’s never too early to think about these myriad issues and use them to try and craft a winning strategy.