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Read Article Betting Guide for Game 5 of Celtics vs. Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals
Updated: | First published:
Written by Matt Hickman
The 2022 NBA Finals shift back to the Bay Area tonight for Game 5 with the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics tied at 2-2.
Dimers.com Managing Editor Matt Hickman breaks down the matchup.
This preview of Game 5 of the Warriors-Celtics series is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Compare all the sportsbooks' NBA odds to make sure you get the most out of your bets.
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Game 5: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
NBA Finals
Monday June 13, 2022, 9PM ET
Why the favorite Warriors will cover the spread
One thing that can be said with certainty about this NBA Finals is that point spreads have been wholly irrelevant. With the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics alternating wins by 12, 19, 16 and 10, the 3.5 points the Warriors are giving almost certainly won’t matter, so you can almost certainly count on getting spread bet value at moneyline risk for the favorite.
When it comes to Game 5’s, the home team is victorious in NBA best-of-seven series better than 82 percent of the time, and at home this season, Golden State was 31-10 and 9-1 in the postseason, with a four-game winning streak against the spread.
DimersBOT Prediction: Warriors to cover -3.5 (51% probability)
Why the underdog Celtics will cover the spread
Herculian efforts from Steph Curry are all that have kept the Boston Celtics from being on the verge of clinching this series. His 43 points in Game 4, playing on an injured foot that he says ‘feels great’ heading into Game 5, were enough to get the series square, but apart from besting Boston by 49 points in the third quarters, the Celtics have been gradually and steadily imposing their will, outscoring Golden State by 45 in every other quarter.
The Celtics are 5-0 in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home, and have the benefit of a pair of referees, who just don’t seem to let home teams cover the spread all that often. Home teams are 30-41-1 against the spread when Tony Brothers officiates, and 28-39-2 when Marc Davis is on the whistle.
Why Celtics vs. Warriors will go Over the 210.5 points line
The Over/Under has alternated the last eight matchups between these teams, and throughout the finals series, second halves have been far higher scoring than first halves.
If the trend holds and the Warriors fall behind in the first half, come out scorching in the third quarter only to see Boston rally in the fourth, expect the Over to be covered rather easily because with so much on the line in a pivotal Game 5 both teams will fight with every breath, which means plenty of intentional fouling to stretch the game — and the score — out.
DimersBOT Prediction: Over 210.5 points (52% probability)
Why Warriors vs. Celtics will stay Under the 210.5 total points line
Simply put, these two teams are outside the margin of error when it comes to the Over/Under and the clear advantage leans to the Under.
Combined, they are 97-105-4 (.480) for the Over, enough to indicate a habit for oddsmakers to overvalue the scoring output of each team, especially, and not surprisingly, the Warriors, who are 47-53-2 (.470) for the Over all season.
X-Factor: Al Horford, Celtics C
Al Horford, at the ripe young age of 36, set the tone for this series in Game 1 going off for 26 points on 9 of 12 from the field in Boston’s stunning road win. The ambling 6-foot-9 forward scored just 2 in Boston’s Game 2 loss, back in double figures with 11 points and 8 rebounds in a Game 3 win and just 8 with no offensive rebounds in Game 4’s loss.
A double-double from Horford and a couple of timely rainbow threes from the wily veteran would mean almost certain success for the visiting Celtics.
🏀 Projected Celtics vs. Warriors Game 5 box score
✍️ Betting Preview: Celtics vs. Warriors Game 5
Written by
Matt Hickman Matt Hickman joined Dimers.com in April 2022 after 25 years in journalism roles across Arizona, North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska. A former President of the Arizona Associated Press Sports Editors, he has won over 50 awards for sportswriting and column writing.
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