Betting Guide for Game 4 of Heat vs. Celtics in the 2022 NBA Eastern Conference Finals

The 2022 NBA Eastern Conference Finals resume in Boston tonight with the top-seeded Miami Heat looking to draw even in Game 4 against the homestanding Celtics.

Dimers.com contributor John Lopez makes the case for either side of even-money bets.

Something has to give, so here we make the case as to why each team has an advantage that can draw them closer to an NBA Championship.

This preview of Game 4 of the Heat-Celtics series is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Compare all the sportsbooks' NBA odds to make sure you get the most out of your bets.

Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

Monday, May 23 2022, 8:30PM

Why the favorite Celtics will cover the spread

The Celtics (-6) haven’t lost back-to-back home games since January 21st.  In fact, since then, including the playoffs, they’ve only lost 12 games in total, eleven of which they followed up with a victory by an average of 18 points.

Before Game 3, Boston and Miami were both allowing 7.5 steals per game, tied for 3rd worst. In Game 3, Miami allowed 2 steals, while Boston allowed a whopping 19! Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who accounted for over 58% of Boston’s usage rate, combined for almost nine more turnovers than they average at home.

Boston actually had a better field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and shot 16 more free-throws than Miami in Game 2, so expect them to correct the turnovers, and get back to the dominant home team we’ve seen the past five months. 

Why the underdog Heat will cover the spread

The Heat (+6) just beat the Celtics at home without their star Jimmy Butler for the entire second half. In fact, Butler took only 8 shots in the first half, but Miami still led Boston by 15 at the break.

Butler is expected to play in Game 4, as is Kyle Lowry who posted a +10 plus/minus in his 29 minutes. On the other hand, Boston’s Robert Williams who missed Game 3 is still questionable. Without Williams, the Celtics started Daniel Theis, who put up a -13 plus/minus in just 11 minutes of work. Bam Adebayo took advantage and put up 31 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists.

Expect the Heat to keep it close with Jimmy Butler having a much bigger impact than he did in Game 2, and Bam Adebayo still playing a large part in the game plan.  

DimersBOT pick: Celtics by 5 (107-102) and Heat to cover +6.5 (54% probability)

Why Heat vs. Celtics will go over the total 206 point line

All three games in this series have gone over 208.5 points, actually averaging 222 points per game. This is despite no Kyle Lowry in the first two games, no Marcus Smart or Al Horford in Game 1, no Jimmy Butler in the second half of Game 3, and Jayson Tatum no-showing for that entire game.

Game 4 should feature all of the above, including Tatum bouncing back from 10 points to his normal playoff average of 26.9 points per game.  So look for Boston and Miami to stay close to their playoff averages of 109.3 and 107.6 points per game, respectively.

DimersBOT Pick: Over 206 (53%)

Why Heat vs. Celtics will stay Under the 206 total points line

Prior to this series, Miami and Boston were numbers 1 and 3 in points allowed, both allowing under 100 per game.

They will both look to ramp up their defense in Game 4, along with getting back to the slower pace they were accustomed to in the regular season, where they were both in the bottom seven of the league.

Miami especially will look to slow things down now that they have regained home court advantage, and can possibly clinch a trip to the Finals at home, with a win in Game 4.   

X-Factor: Jayson Tatum, Celtics Guard

Picking the best player on the favored team as the X-factor may seem too obvious, but looking at the numbers, the Celtics go as far as Tatum takes them.

In playoff wins, Tatum is averaging 30.3 points, 6 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and has a 48.9 field goal percentage, and a 45.7 3-point percentage.

Conversely, in playoff losses, Tatum is averaging 20.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and has a 34.7 field goal percentage, including a 21.4 three point percentage.

Boston is looking to bounce back at home, so Tatum’s point line at 27.5 should be an easy hit, as long as they can limit the turnovers.

Tatum's sportsbook line: 27.5 pts
DimersBOT prediction: 35 pts 🔥

🏀 Projected Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 box score
✍️ Betting Preview: Heat vs. Celtics Game 4