Bet Damian Lillard Player Props In Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies on Wednesday, February 1

Our predictive analytics model views Damian Lillard's point total as far too high in tonight's meeting between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies. Find out why he'll go Under the number on Wednesday, February 1. Our predictive analytics model has identified a huge edge on his points total for the night, so let us break down why Lillard is a great bet to struggle against the Grizzlies defense in this one. Also, make sure you also check out our NBA best bets and NBA parlay for the evening. We've been extremely profitable with all of our picks this season, so we're confident you'll like what you see. We also had a similar story featuring Jalen Brunson's point total last night, and that ended up hitting in the third quarter! 

RELATED: Check out our favorite NBA player props for tonight's slate

As always, we've simulated all of the night's NBA games 10,000 times each to determine where the value lies for sports bettors across the United States.

Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Projected Box Scores

Why Damian Lillard Will Go Under 32.5 Points vs. Grizzlies

Lillard is averaging 30.4 points per game on the season, and he has scored at least 37 points in three of his last four games — with one of those performances seeing the star point guard going for 60 in a win over the Utah Jazz. However, it's not some no-brainer to go out and back the Over on his 32.5-point total against the Grizzlies tonight. 

While Memphis definitely has a team that is capable of getting involved in shootouts — and Lillard will want to go off in a head-to-head matchup with star Ja Morant — the Grizzlies are also second in the league in defensive rating. And overall, this is a matchup that has given Lillard trouble in the past. 

Lillard has actually failed to reach the 33-point mark in each of his last 15 games against the Grizzlies, and he has only scored more than 32.5 in 31 of his 33 career meetings with Memphis. With that said, it's hard to see the guard suddenly going out and lighting it up tonight — even in a game with a total of 239, which is absurdly high. 

The reality is that the Grizzlies are smart enough not to make Morant the primary defender on Lillard in this game, so it's not like the Blazers star will have the luxury of cooking somebody that doesn't care about point-of-attack defense. Lillard is going to have to work, and the Grizzlies are going to do everything they can to get the ball out of his hands. With that said, we see Lillard cooling down a bit in Grind City.