Best NFL Touchdown Bets: Dimers Delivers Winners in Week 1 with Rookies and New Teams

After a long six-month wait, the NFL finally returned for it's 105th season this past weekend.

We kicked off the season with a Chiefs-Ravens battle that came down to the final play before a thrilling NFL Sunday packed with upsets, rookie breakouts and of course, plenty of touchdowns.

Our model was firing on all cylinders for NFL Sunday, sniping some value in spreads and moneylines but also delivering a bunch of TD hits resulting in some big profits for Dimers Pro bettors. Not only did we cash 7 out of 10 of our Top 10 overall probabilities, but also a wealth of value picks you'll see below.

If you were a Dimers Pro, you had access to every TD bet from every game from Thursday though Monday, giving you near countless profitable betting opportunities. If you're not a Dimers Pro, now's your chance to become one for less than $1/day and get unlimited access to our Best NFL Bets, Top NFL Player Props, Parlay Picks and so much more.

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With that said, our social and editorial content leader Dave Garofolo breaks down NFL Week 1 from the DimersBOT:

Dimers' Best Week 1 TD Props Turn a Big Profit

When big probabilities meet a DimersBOT edge, you know you're in store for some winning tickets.

From kickoff on Thursday through the closing game on Monday night, DimersBOT found opportunity after opportunity for bettors to cash in. Between our Top 10 plays Sunday-Monday alone, a $100 bettor would be up $590 betting just the straights!

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) 

In the opening game of the season, WR Xavier Worthy became the second Chiefs' rookies receiver to score on opening night in the past two years. Last season, it was Rashee Rice, with a short little TD catch for the Chiefs' first score.

Onn Thursday night, Worthy took an end-around handoff from Patrick Mahomes straight to the house on his first touch of his NFL career.

Dimers highlighted this opportunity on our socials, offering our projection for Worthy's fair odds to score. And he wasn't done, going on to score a second touchdown of the night in a breakout performance.

In last year's #NFL season opener, Rashee Rice scored the Chiefs' first TD as the team's rookie WR.

Can Xavier Worthy repeat the feat as this year's rookie wideout?

Our probabilities:

🏈 Anytime TD: 32.6% (fair at +205)

🏈 First TD: 7.3% (fair at +1270) pic.twitter.com/9DJHYEa6aG

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) September 5, 2024

Saquon Barkley (Eagles)

We must have had an inkling about these guys, as another highlight of ours was RB Saquon Barkley with his new Eagles team.

Week 1 has rarely been a spot where Saquon scores, doing so just twice in his six-year career with the Giants, but it was a different story in Sao Paolo for Eagles vs. Packers on Friday night.

Saquon scored the first touchdown of the game on the Eagles' third drive, before punching his way for another pair of scores, passing his Week 1 TD total from his six-year Giants career in one night.

Saquon Barkley's TD Odds in Week 1

Jayden Daniels (Commanders)

Noticing a theme yet? rookies and veterans who joined new teams, highlighted by Dimers, who went on to score multiple touchdowns.

Washington didn't leave Week 1 with a win, but they have to be excited about what they saw from rookie QB Jayden Daniels.

While his passing was fine, he shone in the running game, carrying the ball 16 times for 88 yards and a pair of scores.

Dimers had Daniels with a 39.6% probability of scoring, good for +150 odds, while the books had him at +200, identifying a perfect value play.

Stefon Diggs (Texans)

WR Stefon Diggs joined a crowded Texans wide receiver room this past offseason, giving reigning offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud another elite target in the passing game.

Houston saw this move pay instant dividends, with Diggs scoring a pair of touchdowns on just 5 targets, dominating the red zone looks.

Based on our 38.3% probability for him to score, we had his fair odds at +160, giving us a solid 4.3% edge against his odds of +195, proving another instance where the books were wrong.

Dimers' Top 10 TD probabilities with an edge from NFL Week 1

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