Best NBA Play-In Bets, Predictions and Parlay Picks for Heat-Bulls, Kings-Mavericks on April 16

The NBA regular season is a wrap and we're in the Play-In Tournament, a two-stage elimination style showdown featuring eight teams playing for the final two spots in each conference.

After last night's first games that saw both favored teams, the Magic and Warriors, claim the 7-seeds, there are two games on today's NBA schedule: the Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat and Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks.

The winner of each will face the loser of last night's games in a win-and-in game for the final spots in the NBA playoffs. Tonight's losers will end their season.

In order to prepare for tonight's action, we're taking a look at each game, with our best bet, props and even a little parlay play at the end of it all - we hit 3/4 picks last night so we're eager to hit all 4 tonight.

All of our NBA insights come from Dimers Pro, our subscription service that runs predictive simulations for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, identifying profitable betting opportunities where we believe the sportsbooks are wrong. Featuring daily Best Bets, NBA Props, Player Projections, NBA Finals Futures, VIP Discord access and more, learn how to join for less than $1/day by tapping the offer below.

Bulls vs. Heat Prediction, Best Bets

The Miami Heat travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls in a crucial matchup at the United Center, with tip-off scheduled for 7:30 PM ET.

According to the latest odds, the Bulls are narrow 1.5-point favorites, with the total set at 219 and a slight lean to the Over at 51.2%. On the moneyline, Chicago is priced at -112, while Miami sits at +105, indicating a tightly contested battle. Dimers' predictive model gives the Bulls a 56% chance of winning outright, compared to 44% for the Heat, after running 10,000 simulations of the game.

The model's projected final score is Bulls 111, Heat 109, suggesting this one could go down to the wire, though our model is favoring Chicago.

On the stat sheet, Tyler Herro is forecasted to lead all scorers with 26 points, while Josh Giddey, Bam Adebayo and Nikola Vucevic are expected to dominate the glass with 10 rebounds apiece. Giddey, in particular, is worth a look in the player props market, as he's projected for 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists. That makes him a sneaky candidate for a triple-double bet at +235 odds on DraftKings. You can view our full NBA Player Projections for every player here.

From a betting perspective, the best value lies on the Bulls moneyline at -112 on DraftKings, offering a 3.4% edge based on Dimers’ 56.3% win probability. Bettors looking for a plus-money prop with value should target Davion Mitchell over 5.5 assists - with a projection of 6.1 dimes and a 53.6% hit rate, this bet has a 6.0% edge at +110 odds and gets our "Dime Dropper" signal.

Bulls-Heat First Basket Predictions:

• Herro (MIA) 12.5%
• Vucevic (CHI) 12.3%
• White (CHI) 11.0%

Probabilities to Win Eastern Conference, NBA Finals:

• Bulls: Eastern Conference (<0.1%), Finals (<0.1%)
• Heat: Eastern Conference (0.5%), Finals (0.4%)

Kings vs. Mavericks Prediction, Best Bets

The late-night showdown features the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center, with tip-off set for 10:00 PM ET.

The Kings enter as 4.5-point favorites with a game total of 213.5 and a narrow advantage to the Over at 51.4%. On the moneyline, Sacramento is listed at -185, while Dallas is a +170 underdog. Our predictive model gives the Kings a 66% chance to win this one straight up, compared to just 34% for the Mavericks.

Despite the solid moneyline advantage, our projected final score has the Kings just narrowly edging out the Mavs 109-105.

Anthony Davis is expected to be the top scorer with 27 points, while Domantas Sabonis dominates the stat sheet with projections of 15 rebounds and 7 assists, both our highest projected in the game. Sabonis is also another candidate for a sneaky triple-double longshot, given his all-around production, and can be found at +500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Despite the Kings’ solid chances, the betting edge on the -185 moneyline is minimal at just 1.1%, indicating a sharp market projection.

The best betting value lies in the player prop market. The top-rated prop bet from Dimers is Domantas Sabonis over 6.5 assists, with a projection of 7.3 and a 54.5% probability to hit at -110 odds. Like Davion Mitchell in the Bulls game, Sabonis is also tagged with the “Dime Dropper” signal, marking it as a high-value option for bettors.

Kings-Mavericks First Basket Predictions:

• Davis (DAL) 13.1%
• LaVine (SAC) 13.1%
• Sabonis (SAC) 12.3%

Probabilities to Win Western Conference, NBA Finals:

• Kings: Western Conference (0.7%), Finals (0.6%)
• Mavericks: Western Conference (<0.1%), Finals (<0.1%)

NBA Play-In Parlay Picks, Wednesday, April 16

If you take our top prop or trend and best bet from each game and play them together, you'll get a little parlay that looks like this, coming out to +827 odds:

• Bulls ML (-112)
• Davion Mitchell 6+ AST (-115)
• Kings ML (-185)
• Domantas Sabonis 7+ AST (-110)

NBA Play-In Tournament Schedule

• Heat @ Bulls – Wednesday, 7:30 PM ET

• Mavericks @ Kings – Wednesday, 10:00 PM ET

• Hawks vs. Heat-Bulls Winner – Friday, time TBD

• Grizzlies vs. Mavs-Kings Winner – Friday, time TBD

Dimers' 2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Resources

• NBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NBA Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 NBA Finals?
• NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! -110)If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.